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Ohio Senate - Portman vs. Fisher

Candidates

Lee Fisher

Lee Fisher (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Rob Portman

Rob Portman (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Ohio Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | OH-1 | OH-6 | OH-10 | OH-12 | OH-13 | OH-15 | OH-16 | OH-18

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-16
2006: Sen | Gov | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-18
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleFisher (D)Portman (R)Spread
Final Results----39.057.3Portman +18.3
RCP Average10/25 - 10/31--37.057.5Portman +20.5
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.10/27 - 10/31930 LV3960Portman +21
PPP (D)10/28 - 10/301356 LV3957Portman +18
Quinnipiac10/25 - 10/30848 LV3756Portman +19
Rasmussen Reports10/26 - 10/26750 LV3357Portman +24

All Ohio Senate - Portman vs. Fisher Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Ohio Senate - Portman vs. Fisher
37.0Fisher (D)
57.5Portman (R)+20.5

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Race Analysis

10/30/10 -- Fisher donated his last $100,000 to the state Democratic Party, effectively conceding this race.

10/8/10 -- Portman is pretty close to putting this race away.  He's led by double digits in every poll taken over the past few months, while Fisher hasn't been above 43 percent in a poll since June.  Fisher hasn't raised much money, either, so it is hard to see how he closes this gap in three weeks.

----------Race Preview---------

Ohio is in many ways a microcosm of America. It contains everything: A slice of Appalachia in the southeast, farmland in the northwest, industrial centers and new growth cities. For much of the past few decades, it has been a few points more Republican than the rest of the country, including 2008 when it went for Barack Obama by three points fewer than Obama’s national average. The Republicans it produced have been conservative, but they have generally been establishment conservatives who have substantial breaks with conservative orthodoxy, like Mike DeWine and George Voinovich.

DeWine was defeated handily by liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown in 2006, and Voinovich opted to retire this year rather than fight for re-election. After a contentious primary, Democrats nominated Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher. Republicans chose Rob Portman.

Portman was the Republicans’ first choice, and has shown an aptitude for fundraising. At the end of the second quarter, he led the cash race with about six times Fisher’s cash on hand. But Portman’s lengthy political career will provide fodder for the Democrats. He was budget director under President Bush, as well as U.S. trade representative. The latter isn’t likely to play well in this rust belt state, while the former seems unlikely to play well . . . anywhere. 

Polling Data

PollDateSampleFisher (D)Portman (R)Spread
Final Results----39.057.3Portman +18.3
RCP Average10/25 - 10/31--37.057.5Portman +20.5
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.10/27 - 10/31930 LV3960Portman +21
PPP (D)10/28 - 10/301356 LV3957Portman +18
Quinnipiac10/25 - 10/30848 LV3756Portman +19
Columbus Dispatch*10/20 - 10/291445 LV4056Portman +16
Rasmussen Reports10/26 - 10/26750 LV3357Portman +24
SurveyUSA10/22 - 10/26613 LV3752Portman +15
Quinnipiac10/18 - 10/24686 LV3653Portman +17
CNN/Time10/15 - 10/19863 LV4055Portman +15
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.10/14 - 10/18839 LV3958Portman +19
Quinnipiac10/12 - 10/171188 LV3455Portman +21
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.10/8 - 10/13705 LV3658Portman +22
Rasmussen Reports10/11 - 10/11750 LV3457Portman +23
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/9 - 10/91000 LV3552Portman +17
Suffolk University10/4 - 10/6500 LV3747Portman +10
Quinnipiac9/29 - 10/31025 LV3655Portman +19
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/2 - 10/21000 LV3753Portman +16
Rasmussen Reports9/27 - 9/27500 LV4251Portman +9
CBS News/NY Times9/23 - 9/27941 LV3445Portman +11
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/25 - 9/251000 LV3750Portman +13
Reuters/Ipsos9/23 - 9/25440 LV3750Portman +13
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.9/16 - 9/20852 LV4055Portman +15
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/18 - 9/181000 LV3649Portman +13
CNN/Time9/10 - 9/14820 LV4152Portman +11
Quinnipiac9/9 - 9/14730 LV3555Portman +20
Rasmussen Reports9/13 - 9/13750 LV4149Portman +8
SurveyUSA9/10 - 9/13641 LV4049Portman +9
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/11 - 9/111000 LV4148Portman +7
Columbus Dispatch*8/25 - 9/31622 LV3750Portman +13
Rasmussen Reports8/30 - 8/30750 LV4147Portman +6
PPP (D)8/27 - 8/29475 LV3845Portman +7
Rasmussen Reports8/16 - 8/16750 LV3948Portman +9
Reuters/Ipsos8/6 - 8/8417 LV3643Portman +7
Rasmussen Reports8/2 - 8/2750 LV4044Portman +4
Rasmussen Reports7/19 - 7/19750 LV3945Portman +6
Rasmussen Reports6/29 - 6/29500 LV3943Portman +4
PPP (D)6/26 - 6/27482 LV4038Fisher +2
Quinnipiac6/22 - 6/271107 RV4240Fisher +2
Rasmussen Reports6/3 - 6/3500 LV4343Tie
University of Cincinnati5/11 - 5/20668 LV4746Fisher +1
Rasmussen Reports5/5 - 5/5500 LV4342Fisher +1
Quinnipiac4/21 - 4/261568 RV4037Fisher +3
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**4/5 - 4/7600 LV4339Fisher +4
Rasmussen Reports3/30 - 3/30500 LV3843Portman +5
Quinnipiac3/23 - 3/291526 RV4137Fisher +4
PPP (D)3/20 - 3/21630 LV3641Portman +5
Rasmussen Reports3/4 - 3/4500 LV3944Portman +5
Quinnipiac2/16 - 2/211662 RV3740Portman +3
Rasmussen Reports2/5 - 2/6500 LV3943Portman +4
Rasmussen Reports1/12 - 1/12500 LV3744Portman +7
ORL/Wenzel Strategies (R)1/8 - 1/121001 RV3137Portman +6
Rasmussen Reports12/7 - 12/7500 LV3638Portman +2
Quinnipiac11/5 - 11/91123 RV3639Portman +3
Rasmussen Reports9/23 - 9/23500 LV4041Portman +1
Quinnipiac9/10 - 9/131074 RV4231Fisher +11
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**7/6 - 7/8600 LV4235Fisher +7
Quinnipiac6/26 - 7/11259 RV3733Fisher +4
PPP (D)6/17 - 6/19619 RV4132Fisher +9
Quinnipiac4/28 - 5/41079 RV4231Fisher +11
Quinnipiac3/10 - 3/151299 RV4133Fisher +8
Quinnipiac1/29 - 2/21127 RV4227Fisher +15
PPP (D)1/17 - 1/18578 RV3941Portman +2