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New York Senate Special Election - DioGuardi vs. Gillibrand

Candidates

Joe DioGuardi

Joe DioGuardi (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Kirsten Gillibrand

Kirsten Gillibrand (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

New York Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | Senate | NY-1 | NY-2 | NY-4 | NY-13 | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-22 | NY-23 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-27 | NY-29

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
Pres | NY-13 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2006: Governor | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleDioGuardi (R)Gillibrand (D)Spread
Final Results----35.862.0Gillibrand +26.2
RCP Average10/18 - 10/30--36.055.8Gillibrand +19.8
Siena10/27 - 10/30603 LV3757Gillibrand +20
Marist10/26 - 10/28415 LV4055Gillibrand +15
SurveyUSA10/25 - 10/28544 LV3656Gillibrand +20
Quinnipiac10/18 - 10/24672 LV3457Gillibrand +23
Rasmussen Reports10/19 - 10/19500 LV3354Gillibrand +21

All New York Senate Special Election - DioGuardi vs. Gillibrand Polling Data

(After October 4th registered voter poll results will not be added to RCP State Poll Averages.)
RCP Poll Average
New York Senate Special Election - DioGuardi vs. Gillibrand
36.0DioGuardi (R)
55.8Gillibrand (D)+19.8

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Race Analysis

10/30/10 -- The days of a close race here are over. Gillibrand is polling around 55 percent, and is a prohibitive favorite to retain her Senate seat.

10/8/10 -- The polls have started to move in Gillibrand's direction somewhat, suggesting that the polls showing a closer race may have been merely part of a post-primary bounce.  Carl Paladino's meltdown atop the ticket isn't helping matters any for the Republicans.

----------Race Preview---------

For an in-depth profile of this race, click here.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleDioGuardi (R)Gillibrand (D)Spread
Final Results----35.862.0Gillibrand +26.2
RCP Average10/18 - 10/30--36.055.8Gillibrand +19.8
Siena10/27 - 10/30603 LV3757Gillibrand +20
Marist10/26 - 10/28415 LV4055Gillibrand +15
SurveyUSA10/25 - 10/28544 LV3656Gillibrand +20
Quinnipiac10/18 - 10/24672 LV3457Gillibrand +23
Marist10/18 - 10/20505 LV3856Gillibrand +18
Rasmussen Reports10/19 - 10/19500 LV3354Gillibrand +21
Siena10/14 - 10/18647 LV3160Gillibrand +29
New York Times10/10 - 10/15LV2550Gillibrand +25
SurveyUSA10/11 - 10/13633 LV3654Gillibrand +18
SurveyUSA10/5 - 10/7627 LV3554Gillibrand +19
Quinnipiac10/1 - 10/51141 LV3455Gillibrand +21
CNN/Time10/1 - 10/5585 LV4155Gillibrand +14
PPP (D)10/1 - 10/3592 LV4050Gillibrand +10
Marist9/19 - 9/22617 LV4152Gillibrand +11
SurveyUSA9/20 - 9/21527 LV4445Gillibrand +1
Siena9/16 - 9/21801 RV3157Gillibrand +26
Quinnipiac9/16 - 9/20751 LV4248Gillibrand +6
Rasmussen Reports9/16 - 9/16500 LV3949Gillibrand +10
Rasmussen Reports9/1 - 9/1500 LV3151Gillibrand +20
Quinnipiac8/23 - 8/291497 RV2843Gillibrand +15
Siena8/9 - 8/16788 RV2954Gillibrand +25
Rasmussen Reports7/29 - 7/29500 LV3350Gillibrand +17
Siena7/6 - 7/12760 RV2951Gillibrand +22
Rasmussen Reports6/16 - 6/16500 LV3849Gillibrand +11
Siena6/7 - 6/9808 RV2947Gillibrand +18
Siena5/17 - 5/20905 RV2551Gillibrand +26
Rasmussen Reports5/12 - 5/12500 LV2851Gillibrand +23
Marist5/3 - 5/5686 RV3050Gillibrand +20
Siena4/12 - 4/15806 RV2746Gillibrand +19
(After October 4th registered voter poll results will not be added to RCP State Poll Averages.)