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Nevada Senate - Angle vs. Reid

Candidates

Sharron Angle

Sharron Angle (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Harry Reid

Harry Reid (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Nevada Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | NV-3

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | NV-3
2006: Governor | NV-2 | NV-3
2004: President | Senate | NV-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleAngle (R)Reid (D)Spread
Final Results----44.650.2Reid +5.6
RCP Average10/25 - 10/31--48.045.3Angle +2.7
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/31682 LV4746Angle +1
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/30 - 10/301000 LV4845Angle +3
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon10/25 - 10/27625 LV4945Angle +4

All Nevada Senate - Angle vs. Reid Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Nevada Senate - Angle vs. Reid
48.0Angle (R)+2.7
45.3Reid (D)

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Race Analysis

10/29/10 -- Angle has managed to pull into a fairly steady four-point lead here, with some pollsters seeing an even larger lead among those who have already voted.  Either candidate could win here, but Angle is the favorite going into the closing weekend. 

10/26/10 -- The trendline here is pretty unmistakeable.  From mid-July through mid-September, Harry Reid held onto a small lead here.  The margin starts moving in Angle's direction steadily since then.  Unless it reverses in the next seven day -- which is very much possible -- she'll be a Senator.

10/20/10 -- Angle is moving into a slight lead in the most recent polling, but this race remains tight.  Both candidates are extremely well-funded, and will have the resources to fight this out until the end.

10/13/10 -- Right now, this is one of four races that will probably decide control of the Senate.  Reid and Angle have been trading leads for a few weeks, and it is obvious that Angle's eye-popping $14 million haul in the Third Quarter is what has allowed her to stay in this game.

10/7/10 -- Angle has inched ahead in the RCP Average for the first time in several months.  Reid has only led in two of the seven polls taken since mid-September.  It's still a very close race, but Angle gets the edge.

9/29/10 -- The polls here have tightened again, and it looks like a 1- or 2-point race.  This is bad news for Harry Reid, who really needs to go into the election with a substantial lead or risk undecideds breaking heavily against him.  The edge is slowly starting to go to Angle.

----------Race Preview---------

If Harry Reid were a cat, he’d be on his 15th life. The former boxer was first elected statewide as lieutenant governor in 1974. Four years later he lost a close race to succeed conservative Democrat Alan Bible to Paul Laxalt by 600 votes. This is normally the end of a political career, but for Reid it was only the beginning. He became gaming commissioner and nearly lost his life in a literal sense when a mobster attempted to blow up his car.

Reid won a congressional seat in 1982 and was elevated to the Senate in 1986 when Laxalt retired. Reid drew weak opponents in 1992 and 2004, and won by only 400 votes in 1998 (against current Senator John Ensign).

By all accounts, Reid should be a dead politician walking. His approval ratings dropped alongside the Vegas housing market, and he polled below 40 percent in some polls. But Republicans had a weak field of candidates challenging Reid, and former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle was their eventual choice. Angle has proved to be a chronically gaffe-prone candidate, who is running as a proud Christian conservative in Sin City. Complicating matters for Angle, the state allows voters to select “none of these candidates,” which could split the anti-Reid vote. This could be a missed opportunity for Republicans.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleAngle (R)Reid (D)Spread
Final Results----44.650.2Reid +5.6
RCP Average10/25 - 10/31--48.045.3Angle +2.7
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/31682 LV4746Angle +1
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/30 - 10/301000 LV4845Angle +3
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon10/25 - 10/27625 LV4945Angle +4
CNN/Time10/20 - 10/26773 LV4945Angle +4
Rasmussen Reports10/25 - 10/25750 LV4945Angle +4
Rasmussen Reports10/17 - 10/17750 LV5047Angle +3
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon10/11 - 10/12625 LV4846Angle +2
Rasmussen Reports10/11 - 10/11750 LV4948Angle +1
Suffolk University10/8 - 10/11500 LV4346Reid +3
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/9 - 10/91000 LV4947Angle +2
PPP (D)10/7 - 10/9504 LV4547Reid +2
Rasmussen Reports10/5 - 10/5750 LV5046Angle +4
CNN/Time10/1 - 10/5789 LV4240Angle +2
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/2 - 10/21000 LV4946Angle +3
Rasmussen Reports9/28 - 9/28750 LV4748Reid +1
Retail Assoc. of Nevada/POS (R)9/21 - 9/23500 LV4045Reid +5
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon9/20 - 9/22625 LV4343Tie
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/18 - 9/181000 LV4645Angle +1
CNN/Time9/10 - 9/14789 LV4241Angle +1
Rasmussen Reports9/13 - 9/13750 LV4848Tie
Reuters/Ipsos9/10 - 9/12463 LV4446Reid +2
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/11 - 9/111000 LV4544Angle +1
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon9/7 - 9/9625 LV4446Reid +2
Rasmussen Reports9/1 - 9/1750 LV4750Reid +3
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon8/23 - 8/25625 LV4445Reid +1
Rasmussen Reports8/16 - 8/16750 LV5048Angle +2
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon8/9 - 8/11625 LV4446Reid +2
Reuters/Ipsos7/30 - 8/1462 LV4448Reid +4
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon7/26 - 7/28625 RV4243Reid +1
Rasmussen Reports7/27 - 7/27750 LV4345Reid +2
PPP (D)7/16 - 7/18630 RV4648Reid +2
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon7/12 - 7/14625 LV3744Reid +7
Rasmussen Reports7/12 - 7/12750 LV4643Angle +3
Rasmussen Reports6/22 - 6/22500 LV4841Angle +7
Rasmussen Reports6/9 - 6/9500 LV5039Angle +11
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon6/1 - 6/3625 LV4441Angle +3
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/31 - 6/2600 LV3743Reid +6
Mason-Dixon5/24 - 5/26625 LV3942Reid +3
Rasmussen Reports4/27 - 4/27500 LV4840Angle +8
Rasmussen Reports3/31 - 3/31500 LV5140Angle +11
Rasmussen Reports3/3 - 3/3500 LV4638Angle +8
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon2/22 - 2/24625 LV4442Angle +2
Rasmussen Reports2/3 - 2/3500 LV4440Angle +4
Rasmussen Reports1/11 - 1/11500 LV4440Angle +4
Mason-Dixon1/5 - 1/7625 RV4540Angle +5
Rasmussen Reports12/9 - 12/9500 LV4743Angle +4