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New Hampshire Senate - Ayotte vs. Hodes

Candidates

Kelly Ayotte

Kelly Ayotte (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Paul Hodes

Paul Hodes (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

New Hampshire Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races:
Governor | NH-1 | NH-2

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Senate | NH-1
2006: Governor | NH-2
2004: President | Senate | NH-1 | NH-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleAyotte (R)Hodes (D)Spread
Final Results----60.236.7Ayotte +23.5
RCP Average10/27 - 10/31--55.339.3Ayotte +16.0
WMUR/UNH10/27 - 10/31885 LV5436Ayotte +18
PPP (D)10/27 - 10/291308 LV5641Ayotte +15
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV5641Ayotte +15

All New Hampshire Senate - Ayotte vs. Hodes Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
New Hampshire Senate - Ayotte vs. Hodes
55.3Ayotte (R)+16.0
39.3Hodes (D)

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Race Analysis

10/30/10 -- It doesn't look like this one is happening for Hodes.  Ayotte is over 50 percent and on pace to win by double digits.

9/29/10 -- With around 30 days left, Ayotte seems to be in the driver's seat.  Will undecideds break against her?  They are going to have to strongly prefer Hodes to her if he is going to capture Gregg's seat.

----------Race Preview---------

For most of the late 20th century, New Hampshire’s politics were driven by the influx of citizens from Massachusetts. In the 1970s and 80s, these voters were sympathetic to the taxpayer revolt and threw out both Democratic senators in favor of Republicans. In the 1990s and 2000s, these voters, like many northern suburbanites, began to rebel against the southern-accented GOP’s conservative values on social issues, and the state elected mostly Democratic governors, while Republicans saw their margin in the Senate races shrink. In 2008 they lost one of their Senate seats, as a scion of a prominent New Hampshire Republican family was handily defeated by a former Democratic governor.

In early 2009, Senator Gregg was tapped by President Obama to be the new secretary of commerce. Gregg quickly withdrew from the post, but opted not to run for re-election. On the Democratic side, 2nd District Congressman Paul Hodes threw his hat into the ring. On the Republican side, Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, who Sarah Palin named one of her "Mama Grizzlies," narrowly won the party's nomination over conservative 1996 gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne. She also had to contend with a pair of well-funded businessmen, Bill Binnie and Jim Bender.

Gallup had President Obama’s mid-2010 approval ratings at 41-52 among adults in the Granite State. Hodes’ quite liberal voting record is probably a bit to the left of this swing state, and New Hampshire overall seems to have swung back toward the Republicans heavily this cycle.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleAyotte (R)Hodes (D)Spread
Final Results----60.236.7Ayotte +23.5
RCP Average10/27 - 10/31--55.339.3Ayotte +16.0
WMUR/UNH10/27 - 10/31885 LV5436Ayotte +18
PPP (D)10/27 - 10/291308 LV5641Ayotte +15
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV5641Ayotte +15
WMUR/UNH10/7 - 10/12709 LV5035Ayotte +15
Rasmussen Reports10/10 - 10/10750 LV5144Ayotte +7
ARG10/3 - 10/5600 LV4742Ayotte +5
WMUR/UNH9/23 - 9/29466 LV5035Ayotte +15
ARG9/22 - 9/26800 LV4632Ayotte +14
Rasmussen Reports9/15 - 9/15500 LV5144Ayotte +7
PPP (D)9/11 - 9/121959 LV4743Ayotte +4
Rasmussen Reports8/5 - 8/5500 LV5138Ayotte +13
WMUR/UNH7/19 - 7/27446 LV4537Ayotte +8
PPP (D)7/23 - 7/25900 RV4542Ayotte +3
Rasmussen Reports7/12 - 7/12500 LV4937Ayotte +12
Rasmussen Reports5/11 - 5/11500 LV5038Ayotte +12
WMUR/UNH4/12 - 4/21462 LV4732Ayotte +15
PPP (D)4/17 - 4/181474 LV4740Ayotte +7
Rasmussen Reports4/7 - 4/7500 LV5035Ayotte +15
Rasmussen Reports3/8 - 3/8500 LV4737Ayotte +10
Rasmussen Reports2/10 - 2/10500 LV4639Ayotte +7
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**2/1 - 2/3600 LV4639Ayotte +7
WMUR/UNH1/27 - 2/3444 LV4133Ayotte +8
Rasmussen Reports1/12 - 1/12500 LV4940Ayotte +9
ARG12/26 - 12/29566 RV4336Ayotte +7
WMUR/UNH9/25 - 10/2503 A4033Ayotte +7
ARG9/25 - 9/29572 LV4134Ayotte +7
Rasmussen Reports9/14 - 9/14500 LV4638Ayotte +8
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**7/13 - 7/15600 LV3938Ayotte +1
University of New Hampshire6/24 - 7/1558 A3935Ayotte +4