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North Carolina Senate - Burr vs. Marshall

Candidates

Richard Burr

Richard Burr (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Elaine Marshall

Elaine Marshall (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

North Carolina Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
NC-2 | NC-4 | NC-7 | NC-8 | NC-11 | NC-13

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Senate | Governor | NC-8
2006: NC-11
2004: President | Senate | Governor | NC-11

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBurr (R)Marshall (D)Spread
Final Results----55.042.9Burr +12.1
RCP Average10/12 - 10/31--50.337.5Burr +12.8
PPP (D)10/29 - 10/31847 LV5240Burr +12
SurveyUSA10/22 - 10/25590 LV5338Burr +15
Civitas (R)10/18 - 10/20600 LV4434Burr +10
Rasmussen Reports10/12 - 10/12500 LV5238Burr +14

All North Carolina Senate - Burr vs. Marshall Polling Data

(After October 4th registered voter poll results will not be added to RCP State Poll Averages.)
RCP Poll Average
North Carolina Senate - Burr vs. Marshall
50.3Burr (R)+12.8
37.5Marshall (D)

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Race Analysis

10/26/19 -- The polls here have closed somewhat, but Burr is still right around 50 percent and Marshall is well under 40 percent.  That's a lot of ground for Marshall to make up in seven days.

10/7/10 -- For a while this race looked like it would be competitive.  But Burr went on the airwaves after Labor Day, and has opened up a substantial lead in almost every poll.  This one is really slipping away from the Democrats.

----------Race Preview---------

If anything were to make us believe in curses, this Senate seat would be it. Since Sam Ervin retired in 1974, no one has managed to hold the seat for two terms: it elected Robert Morgan in 1974, who lost to John East in 1980, who committed suicide and whose appointed successor lost to Terry Sanford in 1986, who lost to Lauch Faircloth in 1992, who lost to John Edwards in 1998. Edwards’ polling numbers were awful in 2004, and he opted to run for the White House rather than re-election, at which point Republican Richard Burr won the seat.

This high level of competition isn’t surprising, as North Carolina has always had a substantial Republican presence, and had a split in the Democratic Party between progressives and conservatives. Jesse Helms succeeded in bringing the conservatives into the Republican Party, and northern immigrants to the Research Triangle Park area voted Republican. For a while it looked like North Carolina would become a solidly Republican state. But this didn’t happen, as moderate governors like Jim Hunt and Mike Easley kept some of the conservative Democrats in the fold, while suburbanites around RTP drifted toward the Democratic Party.

Burr’s opponent in 2010, North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, is in the mold of these successful Democrats. Her model will be Senator Kay Hagan’s 2008 race against Elizabeth Dole, where Hagan kept pace with the Republican before surging into the lead in the fall. Burr’s re-elect numbers haven’t been great. He’d be in greater danger if 2010 wasn't shaping up to be such a strong year for Republicans. Still, things could easily break against him.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBurr (R)Marshall (D)Spread
Final Results----55.042.9Burr +12.1
RCP Average10/12 - 10/31--50.337.5Burr +12.8
PPP (D)10/29 - 10/31847 LV5240Burr +12
SurveyUSA10/22 - 10/25590 LV5338Burr +15
Civitas (R)10/18 - 10/20600 LV4434Burr +10
PPP (D)10/15 - 10/17597 LV4840Burr +8
Rasmussen Reports10/12 - 10/12500 LV5238Burr +14
PPP (D)9/23 - 9/26681 LV4936Burr +13
Civitas (R)9/15 - 9/17600 LV4929Burr +20
SurveyUSA9/10 - 9/13582 LV5834Burr +24
Rasmussen Reports9/8 - 9/8500 LV5438Burr +16
PPP (D)8/27 - 8/29724 LV4338Burr +5
Rasmussen Reports8/3 - 8/3500 LV4940Burr +9
PPP (D)7/27 - 7/31624 RV3937Burr +2
Civitas (R)7/19 - 7/21600 LV4437Burr +7
SurveyUSA7/8 - 7/11560 LV4636Burr +10
Rasmussen Reports7/6 - 7/6500 LV5237Burr +15
PPP (D)6/26 - 6/27601 LV3833Burr +5
SurveyUSA6/23 - 6/24617 LV5040Burr +10
Rasmussen Reports6/23 - 6/23500 LV4443Burr +1
PPP (D)6/4 - 6/6601 LV4639Burr +7
Rasmussen Reports6/3 - 6/3500 LV5036Burr +14
PPP (D)5/8 - 5/10631 LV4342Burr +1
Rasmussen Reports5/5 - 5/51200 LV4840Burr +8
Rasmussen Reports4/19 - 4/19500 LV5032Burr +18
PPP (D)4/8 - 4/11742 LV4337Burr +6
Rasmussen Reports3/22 - 3/22500 LV5135Burr +16
PPP (D)3/12 - 3/15878 LV4136Burr +5
Rasmussen Reports2/23 - 2/23500 LV5034Burr +16
Mason-Dixon2/15 - 2/17625 RV5429Burr +25
PPP (D)2/12 - 2/15788 LV4333Burr +10
Rasmussen Reports1/27 - 1/27500 LV4737Burr +10
PPP (D)12/11 - 12/13593 LV4237Burr +5
Civitas (R)12/1 - 12/3600 LV4032Burr +8
PPP (D)11/9 - 11/11711 LV4534Burr +11
Change Congress (D)10/31 - 11/1600 LV4235Burr +7
Civitas (R)10/20 - 10/21600 LV4433Burr +11
Rasmussen Reports9/15 - 9/15500 LV4838Burr +10
PPP (D)9/2 - 9/8600 LV4231Burr +11
PPP (D)8/4 - 8/10749 LV4331Burr +12
PPP (D)3/12 - 3/151000 RV4335Burr +8
(After October 4th registered voter poll results will not be added to RCP State Poll Averages.)