2010 Senate Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Senate Map

2010 House Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Generic Congressional Ballot
Final House Map

2010 Governor Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Governors Map

Senate 2010 Polls
News & Election Videos

Missouri Senate - Blunt vs. Carnahan

Candidates

Roy Blunt

Roy Blunt (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Robin Carnahan

Robin Carnahan (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Missouri Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
MO-3 | MO-4 | MO-5

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Gov | MO-6 | MO-9
2006: Senate
2004: President | Sen | Gov | MO-5 | MO-6

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBlunt (R)Carnahan (D)Spread
Final Results----54.340.6Blunt +13.7
RCP Average10/18 - 10/27--51.741.3Blunt +10.4
KSN3/Missouri State Univ.10/20 - 10/27672 LV5441Blunt +13
Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon10/18 - 10/20625 LV4940Blunt +9
Rasmussen Reports10/19 - 10/19750 LV5243Blunt +9

All Missouri Senate - Blunt vs. Carnahan Polling Data

(After October 4th registered voter poll results will not be added to RCP State Poll Averages.)
RCP Poll Average
Missouri Senate - Blunt vs. Carnahan
51.7Blunt (R)+10.4
41.3Carnahan (D)

Embeddable Widget

 

After making your selection, copy and paste the embed code above. The code changes based on your selection below.

180 x 338   300 x 338   450 x 338   Custom Width

px

Minimum pixel width is 180px.
Embed

Race Analysis

10/30/10 -- This race is pretty close to over.  Carnahan has actually lost some ground over October, and it is hard to see how she pulls this one out now.

10/7/10 -- For a while there, it looked like Carnahan was turning this into a close race.  But Blunt seems to have, erm, blunted her momentum, and has been above 50 percent in every poll taken since mid-August.  Carnahan has to make up a point roughly every third day between now and Election Day, which isn't impossible, but isn't easy.

----------Race Preview---------

Missouri politics are dominated by four competing geographic divisions. The Democratic base is in central Kansas City and St. Louis, while the Republicans run strong in the rural southwest, which has long been Republican. The third division is found in the Republican-tilting suburbs, while the fourth division is basically the rest of the state, which is essentially a salient of the south jutting into the heart of the state. Democrats’ successes are normally dictated by how well they run in these latter areas.

The fourth division historically voted Democrat, and kept the state in the Democratic column. But in the 1970s, three Republicans remade the states’ map: John Danforth, John Ashcroft and Kit Bond. Bond broke a 32-year Democratic stranglehold on the Governor’s mansion in 1972, lost in 1976, and was re-elected in 1980. In 1986 he won a Senate seat and, after four terms, called it a career.

The election to replace Bond will pit Republican Congressman Roy Blunt against Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. Both candidates have problems. Although Blunt has a lengthy career in Missouri state politics, he is now a creature of D.C. running in what looks like a change election, and he shares a name with an unsuccessful governor – his son – who retired rather than run for re-election in 2008. He’s running against a bearer of one of the most famous family names in Missouri. Carnahan is the sister of a congressman, daughter of a governor and senator, and granddaughter of another congressman.

Carnahan’s problem is the state’s demographics. In the 1990s, her father pulled together a coalition of suburbanites and rural voters to win handily statewide; Bill Clinton’s wins had a similar flavor. Claire McCaskill pulled together a modified version in 2006; she was able to hold her own in the rural areas but was not able to break through. As a result, her win was narrow. In 2008, Obama was not able to break through at all in rural areas, and was unable to carry the state despite a strong turnout effort in the cities. He remains deeply unpopular in the state.

If Carnahan can sell herself to rural voters and win over suburbanites, she can win this race. But so far, there hasn’t been much of an indication that she can do this. Carnahan will have a tough time pulling together a winning coalition here.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBlunt (R)Carnahan (D)Spread
Final Results----54.340.6Blunt +13.7
RCP Average10/18 - 10/27--51.741.3Blunt +10.4
KSN3/Missouri State Univ.10/20 - 10/27672 LV5441Blunt +13
Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon10/18 - 10/20625 LV4940Blunt +9
Rasmussen Reports10/19 - 10/19750 LV5243Blunt +9
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/16 - 10/161000 LV4943Blunt +6
Rasmussen Reports10/5 - 10/5750 LV5143Blunt +8
CNN/Time10/1 - 10/5832 LV5340Blunt +13
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/2 - 10/21000 LV5042Blunt +8
Rasmussen Reports9/21 - 9/21750 LV5244Blunt +8
Rasmussen Reports9/7 - 9/7750 LV5343Blunt +10
Rasmussen Reports8/23 - 8/23750 LV5441Blunt +13
KY3/Missouri State Univ.8/6 - 8/22785 RV4948Blunt +1
Daily Kos/PPP (D)8/14 - 8/15690 LV4538Blunt +7
Rasmussen Reports8/10 - 8/10750 LV5043Blunt +7
Rasmussen Reports7/27 - 7/27750 LV4943Blunt +6
Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon7/19 - 7/21625 LV4842Blunt +6
Rasmussen Reports7/13 - 7/13500 LV4745Blunt +2
Rasmussen Reports6/28 - 6/28500 LV4843Blunt +5
Rasmussen Reports6/2 - 6/2500 LV4544Blunt +1
Rasmussen Reports5/3 - 5/3500 LV5042Blunt +8
Rasmussen Reports4/6 - 4/6500 LV4842Blunt +6
PPP (D)3/27 - 3/28495 LV4541Blunt +4
Rasmussen Reports3/9 - 3/9500 LV4741Blunt +6
Rasmussen Reports2/10 - 2/10500 LV4942Blunt +7
Rasmussen Reports1/19 - 1/19500 LV4943Blunt +6
Rasmussen Reports12/15 - 12/15500 LV4446Carnahan +2
PPP (D)11/13 - 11/15763 LV4243Carnahan +1
Rasmussen Reports9/21 - 9/21500 LV4646Tie
Momentum Analysis (D)9/15 - 9/19802 LV4548Carnahan +3
Democracy Corps (D)4/28 - 4/30800 LV4453Carnahan +9
Wilson Research (R)3/7 - 3/9600 LV4447Carnahan +3
PPP (D)1/10 - 1/11867 LV4445Carnahan +1
(After October 4th registered voter poll results will not be added to RCP State Poll Averages.)