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Louisiana Senate - Vitter vs. Melancon

Candidates

Charlie Melancon

Charlie Melancon (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

David Vitter

David Vitter (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Louisiana Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races: LA-2 | LA-3

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Senate | LA-4 | LA-6
2006: LA-2
2004: President | Senate | LA-3 | LA-5 | LA-7

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMelancon (D)Vitter (R)Spread
Final Results----37.756.6Vitter +18.9
RCP Average8/21 - 10/24--36.851.8Vitter +15.0
Magellan Strategies (R)10/24 - 10/241347 LV3552Vitter +17
WWL-TV/Clarus Research10/21 - 10/24700 LV3850Vitter +12
Rasmussen Reports8/30 - 8/30500 LV3354Vitter +21
PPP (D)8/21 - 8/22403 LV4151Vitter +10

All Louisiana Senate - Vitter vs. Melancon Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Louisiana Senate - Vitter vs. Melancon
36.8Melancon (D)
51.8Vitter (R)+15.0

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Race Analysis

10/7/10 -- Melancon is playing the prostitution card, but Vitter's lead is growing, and he's increasingly above 50 percent in the polls.  So far nothing has changed to indicate that Melancon is gaining any traction.  And if the prostitution card doesn't do it, what will?

----------Race Preview---------

Like many southern states, Louisiana was long dominated by Democrats – from 1900 through 1964 there wasn’t a single Republican member of the statehouse, to say nothing of federal office. But like most southern states, this masked a competitive system – the state was split between the Catholic south and Protestant north, and between the populist Long and conservative anti-Long factions.

As the Democratic stranglehold on the South began collapsing, the state began electing Republicans, first to Congress, then as governor. But the state resisted sending a Republican to the Senate. There were near misses: John Breaux won in 1986 by six points, while Mary Landrieu’s 1996 margin of victory was only 5,000 votes. Republicans finally broke through in 2004 when Breaux retired and David Vitter won a majority of the votes in the open primary, avoiding a general election.

But Vitter got himself into trouble when his name showed up in the DC Madam’s address book. He drew a solid Democratic opponent in Congressman Charlie Melancon, and a credible primary opponent in former state Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor. Vitter handily survived his primary, and the bad Democratic year has helped keep his general election numbers above 50 percent.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMelancon (D)Vitter (R)Spread
Final Results----37.756.6Vitter +18.9
RCP Average8/21 - 10/24--36.851.8Vitter +15.0
Magellan Strategies (R)10/24 - 10/241347 LV3552Vitter +17
WWL-TV/Clarus Research10/21 - 10/24700 LV3850Vitter +12
Magellan Strategies (R)10/10 - 10/101107 LV3551Vitter +16
Magellan Strategies (R)9/19 - 9/191232 LV3452Vitter +18
Rasmussen Reports8/30 - 8/30500 LV3354Vitter +21
PPP (D)8/21 - 8/22403 LV4151Vitter +10
WWL-TV/Clarus Research8/15 - 8/16600 RV3648Vitter +12
Rasmussen Reports6/24 - 6/24500 LV3553Vitter +18
PPP (D)6/12 - 6/13492 LV3746Vitter +9
Magellan Strategies (R)6/10 - 6/131030 LV3151Vitter +20
SMOR/Grigsby (R)4/19 - 4/23600 RV3149Vitter +18
Rasmussen Reports4/7 - 4/7500 LV3652Vitter +16
Rasmussen Reports2/10 - 2/10500 LV3357Vitter +24
Rasmussen Reports1/14 - 1/14500 LV3553Vitter +18
SMOR/Grigsby (R)10/12 - 10/15600 LV3648Vitter +12
Rasmussen Reports10/5 - 10/5500 LV3646Vitter +10
PPP (D)7/17 - 7/19727 LV3244Vitter +12