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Kentucky Senate - Paul vs. Conway

Candidates

Jack Conway

Jack Conway (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Rand Paul

Rand Paul (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Kentucky Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races: KY-3 | KY-6

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Senate | KY-3
2006: KY-3 | KY-4
2004: President | Senate | KY-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleConway (D)Paul (R)Spread
Final Results----44.255.8Paul +11.6
RCP Average10/24 - 10/30--40.851.8Paul +11.0
PPP (D)10/28 - 10/301021 LV4055Paul +15
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV4153Paul +12
CN|2/Braun Research10/25 - 10/27800 LV3947Paul +8
SurveyUSA10/24 - 10/27637 LV4352Paul +9

All Kentucky Senate - Paul vs. Conway Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Kentucky Senate - Paul vs. Conway
40.8Conway (D)
51.8Paul (R)+11.0

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Race Analysis

10/26/10 -- It looks like "aqua Buddha" might have backfired, much like Elizabeth Dole's "Godless" ad in 2008 and George Allen's comments on Jim Webb's racy scenes in his books in 2006.  Of course in both cases the candidates saw the writing on the wall and attempted a Hail Mary; it may be the same story here.

10/20/10 -- The polls show a definite tightening here.  It is unclear whether Conway's "Aqua Buddha" ad is a bridge too far, or whether it will convince Kentuckians that Paul is a bridge too far.  We'll see on election night.  It's worth noting that most of this tightening comes from Paul's numbers falling, rather than Conway's numbers improving.

9/30/10 -- Some recent polls have shown a closer race here, including a SurveyUSA poll that shows Paul with just a two-point lead. By contrast, the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows an 11-point Paul lead.  What all the polls agree on is that there are still enough undecideds out there for Conway to pull off the win.  If the remainder of the undecideds are people who have doubts about Paul, the upset isn't out of the question.

----------Race Preview---------

Kentucky politics can largely be explained by the state’s congressional districts. The 1st and 2nd Districts are (roughly) the Jackson Purchase and Pennyrile areas of the state, which vote like the Deep South. The 3rd and 6th Districts represent urban Louisville and greater Lexington, while the 4th District is the Republican Cincinnati and Louisville suburbs. The 5th District is an amalgam of two older districts, one of which was old mountain Republican territory, and one of which was heavily unionized and Democratic coal mining country. The name of the game for Republicans is to run well in the 4th and 5th and hold their ground in the 1st and 2nd, while Democrats try to add to their bases in Louisville, Lexington, and the coal mining areas of the 5th.

After witnessing Senator Jim Bunning’s near-defeat at the hands of then-obscure state Senator Dan Mongiardo in 2004 and Governor Ernie Fletcher’s disastrous re-election campaign in 2007, Republicans succeeded in convincing Bunning not to seek re-election. Both sides had competitive primaries. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Mongiardo lost to Attorney General Jack Conway. On the Republican side, Secretary of State Trey Grayson was badly beaten by libertarian upstart Rand Paul.

Paul has made a series of missteps, including an ambiguous commitment to the Civil Rights Act of 1964. But Conway had to tack leftward to win his primary, and supported the Democrats’ health care bill and has supported cap-and-trade legislation in the past – dangerous positions in a state where the President sports a 40 percent approval rating. This could be a situation where the state’s typical alignment is reversed, and Paul runs weaker in the suburban 4th district, while Conway runs behind in the coal regions of the state and in the Pennyrile. 

Polling Data

PollDateSampleConway (D)Paul (R)Spread
Final Results----44.255.8Paul +11.6
RCP Average10/24 - 10/30--40.851.8Paul +11.0
PPP (D)10/28 - 10/301021 LV4055Paul +15
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV4153Paul +12
CN|2/Braun Research10/25 - 10/27800 LV3947Paul +8
SurveyUSA10/24 - 10/27637 LV4352Paul +9
CNN/Time10/20 - 10/26785 LV4350Paul +7
PPP (D)10/21 - 10/24900 LV4053Paul +13
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/23 - 10/231000 LV4350Paul +7
Mason-Dixon10/18 - 10/19625 LV4348Paul +5
Rasmussen Reports10/18 - 10/18500 LV4247Paul +5
CN|2/Braun Research10/4 - 10/6826 LV4043Paul +3
Rasmussen Reports9/29 - 9/29500 LV3849Paul +11
SurveyUSA9/21 - 9/23611 LV4749Paul +2
Daily Kos/PPP (D)9/11 - 9/12959 LV4249Paul +7
Rasmussen Reports9/7 - 9/7500 LV3954Paul +15
CNN/Time9/2 - 9/7869 RV4646Tie
CN|2/Braun Research8/30 - 9/1802 LV3742Paul +5
SurveyUSA8/30 - 9/1561 LV4055Paul +15
CN|2/Braun Research8/16 - 8/18801 LV4241Conway +1
Rasmussen Reports8/17 - 8/17500 LV4151Paul +10
Reuters/Ipsos8/13 - 8/15435 LV4045Paul +5
CN|2/Braun Research8/2 - 8/4802 LV3141Paul +10
SurveyUSA7/27 - 7/29568 LV4351Paul +8
CN|2/Braun Research7/19 - 7/21803 LV3841Paul +3
Rasmussen Reports7/20 - 7/20750 LV4149Paul +8
PPP (D)6/28 - 6/30625 RV4343Tie
Rasmussen Reports6/28 - 6/28500 LV4249Paul +7
Rasmussen Reports6/1 - 6/1500 LV4149Paul +8
SurveyUSA5/25 - 5/27569 LV4551Paul +6
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/24 - 5/26600 LV4144Paul +3
Rasmussen Reports5/19 - 5/19500 LV3459Paul +25
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/10 - 5/12600 LV3942Paul +3
PPP (D)5/1 - 5/2946 RV4041Paul +1
Rasmussen Reports4/28 - 4/28500 LV3847Paul +9
Rasmussen Reports3/31 - 3/31500 LV3650Paul +14
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**3/15 - 3/17600 LV3945Paul +6
Rasmussen Reports3/2 - 3/2500 LV3449Paul +15
Rasmussen Reports2/2 - 2/2500 LV3947Paul +8
Rasmussen Reports1/6 - 1/6500 LV3846Paul +8
PPP (D)12/18 - 12/211199 RV3642Paul +6
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**8/31 - 9/2600 LV4137Conway +4