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Indiana Senate - Coats vs. Ellsworth

Candidates

Dan Coats

Dan Coats (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Brad Ellsworth

Brad Ellsworth (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Indiana Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races: 
IN-2 | IN-8

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Governor | IN-3
2006: IN-2 | IN-7 | IN-8 | IN-9
2004: President | Governor | Senate | IN-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCoats (R)Ellsworth (D)Spread
Final Results----54.640.0Coats +14.6
RCP Average10/19 - 10/25--53.033.7Coats +19.3
Downs Center/SUSA10/21 - 10/251600 LV5432Coats +22
Rasmussen Reports10/20 - 10/21500 LV5234Coats +18
WISH-TV/EPIC-MRA10/19 - 10/21500 LV5335Coats +18

All Indiana Senate - Coats vs. Ellsworth Polling Data

Race Analysis

10/30/10 -- There are a shocking number of undecideds here for three days before an election.  Coats is just over 50 percent, but he's not going to come close to blowing a 20-point lead.

10/7/10 --Coats is maintaining a solid lead over Ellsworth.  But he's hovering surprisingly close to 50 percent, given that he's a well-known quantity, and that he's a Republican running in a Republican year.  He's still the heavy favorite to win, but he can't breathe easily until he gets his numbers up a few points.

----------Race Preview---------

Indiana is an anomaly in many ways. Unlike northern tier states such as Minnesota and Michigan, large portions of the state have a Southern heritage; unlike Ohio and Illinois, it lacks a massive industrial super-city that drew in scores of Eastern and Southern European immigrants around the turn of the century. Because of this, its politics have been very different from those of other Great Lakes states. In the late 19th and early 20th century, it was the most Democratic Great Lakes state. Today, it is the most heavily Republican.

In 1998, Republican Dan Coats retired from the Senate. His successor was popular two-term governor of the state Evan Bayh, son of the man whom Dan Quayle had defeated nearly two decades earlier. Bayh’s re-election in 2004 was easy, but 2010 was a different year. Polls showed him trailing or barely ahead of his potential GOP opponents after his vote in favor of the President’s health care plan. As a result, Bayh elected not to run.

The Democrats selected Congressman and former Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth, who had won the competitive 8th District in 2006. Republicans selected Coats. Ellsworth would normally be a decent fit for the state, as his normally conservative voting record was consistent with Bayh’s. But his vote for the health care bill will likely be a millstone around his neck in the fall. While his fundraising has been solid, so too has Coats’s.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCoats (R)Ellsworth (D)Spread
Final Results----54.640.0Coats +14.6
RCP Average10/19 - 10/25--53.033.7Coats +19.3
Downs Center/SUSA10/21 - 10/251600 LV5432Coats +22
Rasmussen Reports10/20 - 10/21500 LV5234Coats +18
WISH-TV/EPIC-MRA10/19 - 10/21500 LV5335Coats +18
WISH-TV/EPIC-MRA9/29 - 10/1500 LV5133Coats +18
Rasmussen Reports9/14 - 9/15500 LV5034Coats +16
Rasmussen Reports8/4 - 8/7500 LV5029Coats +21
Rasmussen Reports7/7 - 7/8500 LV5130Coats +21
Rasmussen Reports6/2 - 6/3500 LV4733Coats +14
Rasmussen Reports5/5 - 5/6500 LV5136Coats +15
Downs Center/SUSA4/22 - 4/261250 LV4731Coats +16
Rasmussen Reports4/13 - 4/14500 LV5433Coats +21
Rasmussen Reports3/17 - 3/18500 LV4934Coats +15
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**2/22 - 2/24600 LV3736Coats +1
Rasmussen Reports2/16 - 2/17500 LV4632Coats +14