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Iowa Senate - Grassley vs. Conlin


Roxanne Conlin

Roxanne Conlin (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Charles Grassley

Charles Grassley (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Iowa Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | IA-1 | IA-2 | IA-3

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2006: Governor | IA-1 | IA-3
2004: President | Senate | IA-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleConlin (D)Grassley (R)Spread
Final Results----33.264.5Grassley +31.3
Des Moines Register10/26 - 10/29805 LV3061Grassley +31
Rasmussen Reports9/23 - 9/23500 LV3755Grassley +18
Des Moines Register9/19 - 9/22550 LV3061Grassley +31
Rasmussen Reports8/5 - 8/5500 LV3555Grassley +20
Rasmussen Reports6/14 - 6/14500 LV3754Grassley +17
KCCI/Research 20005/31 - 6/2600 LV4250Grassley +8
PPP (D)5/25 - 5/271277 LV3157Grassley +26
KCCI/Research 20005/3 - 5/5600 LV4049Grassley +9
Rasmussen Reports4/29 - 4/29500 LV4053Grassley +13
Rasmussen Reports3/17 - 3/17500 LV3655Grassley +19
Rasmussen Reports2/18 - 2/18500 LV3653Grassley +17
KCCI/Research 20002/15 - 2/17600 LV3556Grassley +21

Race Analysis

9/29/10 -- Polls are finally starting to show Grassley inching toward 60 percent, which really makes it next-to-impossible for Conlin to win. This state is becoming safe for the GOP.

----------Race Preview---------

Iowa was initially one of the most heavily Republican states in the country. From 1858 until 1924 the state had never elected a Democratic senator. Until 1990, it never re-elected one. The GOP’s grip on the state began to weaken in the 1960s, when the state’s dovish tendencies and history of support for social reform movements moved it toward the Democrats. By 1974, the state had only one Republican congressman: Charles Grassley.

Grassley defeated Senator John Culver (father of the current Governor) in the Reagan landslide of 1980. Grassley’s voting record has been generally conservative; he is roughly in the middle of the Senate’s Republican caucus. The 77-year-old toyed with retirement this cycle, but ultimately chose to run again.

Some Democrats had speculated that the Grassley might be vulnerable this cycle against former U.S. Attorney Roxanne Conlin, but the polling hasn’t borne this out. The underlying dynamics of this cycle would have to change considerably for Conlin to win.