2010 Senate Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Senate Map

2010 House Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Generic Congressional Ballot
Final House Map

2010 Governor Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Governors Map

Senate 2010 Polls
News & Election Videos

Florida Senate - Rubio vs. Meek vs. Crist

Candidates

Charlie Crist

Charlie Crist (I)

Bio | Campaign Site

Kendrick Meek

Kendrick Meek (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCrist (I)Meek (D)Rubio (R)Spread
Final Results----29.720.148.9Rubio +19.2
RCP Average10/25 - 10/31--30.019.247.0Rubio +17.0
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/31773 LV302147Rubio +17
Sunshine State News/VSS10/29 - 10/311527 LV312048Rubio +17
Quinnipiac10/25 - 10/31925 LV311845Rubio +14
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV301650Rubio +20
Mason-Dixon10/25 - 10/27625 LV282145Rubio +17

All Florida Senate - Rubio vs. Meek vs. Crist Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Florida Senate - Rubio vs. Meek vs. Crist
30.0Crist (I)
19.2Meek (D)
47.0Rubio (R)+17.0

Embeddable Widget

 

After making your selection, copy and paste the embed code above. The code changes based on your selection below.

180 x 338   300 x 338   450 x 338   Custom Width

px

Minimum pixel width is 180px.
Embed

Race Analysis

9/28/10 -- The polls indicate that this race is starting to get away from Crist.  Rubio's lead is cracking double digits.  Crist's problem is that his position was always pretty untenable -- as he moves toward Democrats he sheds Republican supporters, and as he moves toward Republicans he sheds Democratic supporters.

----------Race Preview---------

This one is already a race for the ages, with more twists and turns than a John Grisham novel. Republican Senator Mel Martinez opted not to run for re-election in 2010. Republicans thought they had saved the seat when popular Governor Charlie Crist entered the race. But Crist drew a tough primary challenge from conservative former House Speaker Marco Rubio. Rubio surged to the lead, and Crist eventually dropped out of the Republican primary and decided to run as an independent. In the process, he began to send signals that he would caucus with the Democrats if elected.

The Democrats have their own drama. In addition to flirting with Crist, they had to contend with two aspirants for the Democratic nomination. Kendrick Meek is a former police officer who has represented the heavily African American precincts in the Miami area since 2002. Meek has a fairly standard liberal voting record, has never faced a general election opponent, and only endured two primary challenges, including his recent defeat of Jeff Greene in the Democratic Senate primary.

This makes for an interesting dynamic. Meek’s victory in the August primary means that he will probably hold the African American vote, which makes things dicey for Crist. Crist won’t win nearly as many Republican votes as he is getting in polls right now if Republicans intuit that he is going to vote for Harry Reid for majority leader. The three-way nature of this race means that 40 percent of the vote will likely be enough to win.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCrist (I)Meek (D)Rubio (R)Spread
Final Results----29.720.148.9Rubio +19.2
RCP Average10/25 - 10/31--30.019.247.0Rubio +17.0
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/31773 LV302147Rubio +17
Sunshine State News/VSS10/29 - 10/311527 LV312048Rubio +17
Quinnipiac10/25 - 10/31925 LV311845Rubio +14
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV301650Rubio +20
Sunshine State News/VSS10/26 - 10/271576 LV272347Rubio +20
Mason-Dixon10/25 - 10/27625 LV282145Rubio +17
Quinnipiac10/18 - 10/24784 LV351542Rubio +7
TCPalm.com/Zogby10/18 - 10/21802 LV331840Rubio +7
CNN/Time10/15 - 10/19798 LV322046Rubio +14
St. Petersburg Times10/15 - 10/19577 LV262041Rubio +15
Rasmussen Reports10/18 - 10/18750 LV322043Rubio +11
Suffolk University10/14 - 10/17500 LV312239Rubio +8
PPP (D)10/9 - 10/10448 LV332144Rubio +11
Quinnipiac10/6 - 10/101055 LV302244Rubio +14
Sunshine State News/VSS10/6 - 10/101151 LV292245Rubio +16
Rasmussen Reports10/7 - 10/7750 LV251950Rubio +25
Mason-Dixon10/4 - 10/6625 LV272142Rubio +15
FL CoC/POS (R)9/27 - 9/30800 LV331640Rubio +7
TCPalm.com/Zogby9/27 - 9/29802 LV331839Rubio +6
Rasmussen Reports9/28 - 9/28750 LV302141Rubio +11
CNN/Time9/24 - 9/28786 LV312342Rubio +11
Quinnipiac9/23 - 9/261151 LV331846Rubio +13
Mason-Dixon9/20 - 9/22625 LV282340Rubio +12
Rasmussen Reports9/14 - 9/14750 LV302341Rubio +11
Reuters/Ipsos9/10 - 9/12486 LV262140Rubio +14
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/11 - 9/111000 LV272143Rubio +16
CNN/Time9/2 - 9/7899 RV342436Rubio +2
Sunshine State News/VSS9/1 - 9/71016 LV292343Rubio +14
Rasmussen Reports8/25 - 8/25750 LV302140Rubio +10
PPP (D)8/21 - 8/22567 LV321740Rubio +8
Quinnipiac8/11 - 8/161096 RV391632Crist +7
Mason-Dixon8/9 - 8/11625 LV331838Rubio +5
St. Petersburg Times8/6 - 8/10602 RV331729Crist +4
Rasmussen Reports8/9 - 8/9750 LV332138Rubio +5
AIF/McLaughlin (R)7/31 - 8/1600 LV381636Crist +2
Florida Poll/NYT-USF7/24 - 7/28590 LV411230Crist +11
Quinnipiac7/22 - 7/27969 RV391333Crist +6
Rasmussen Reports7/21 - 7/21750 LV332035Rubio +2
PPP (D)7/16 - 7/18900 RV351729Crist +6
Reuters/Ipsos7/9 - 7/11600 RV351728Crist +7
Rasmussen Reports7/6 - 7/6500 LV341536Rubio +2
FL Chamber of Commerce6/9 - 6/13607 LV421431Crist +11
Rasmussen Reports6/7 - 6/7500 LV371537Tie
Quinnipiac6/1 - 6/71133 RV371733Crist +4
St. Petersburg Times5/14 - 5/18607 RV301527Crist +3
Rasmussen Reports5/16 - 5/16500 LV311839Rubio +8
Mason-Dixon5/3 - 5/5625 LV381932Crist +6
Rasmussen Reports5/3 - 5/3500 LV381734Crist +4
Rasmussen Reports4/21 - 4/21500 LV302237Rubio +7
Quinnipiac4/8 - 4/131250 RV322430Crist +2
Rasmussen Reports3/18 - 3/181000 LV222542Rubio +17
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**3/15 - 3/17600 LV292732Rubio +3
PPP (D)3/5 - 3/8849 LV272534Rubio +7
Fabrizio (R)1/27 - 1/28800 LV262431Rubio +5
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**11/16 - 11/18600 LV323127Crist +1