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Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. Blumenthal

Candidates

Richard Blumenthal

Richard Blumenthal (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Linda McMahon

Linda McMahon (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Connecticut Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Gov | CT-1 | CT-2 | CT-4 | CT-5

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | CT-4
2006: Governor | Senate | CT-2 | CT-4 | CT-5
2004: President | Senate | CT-2 | CT-4

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBlumenthal (D)McMahon (R)Spread
Final Results----55.143.3Blumenthal +11.8
RCP Average10/24 - 10/31--53.044.3Blumenthal +8.7
Rasmussen Reports10/31 - 10/31750 LV5346Blumenthal +7
Quinnipiac10/25 - 10/31930 LV5344Blumenthal +9
PPP (D)10/27 - 10/29759 LV5443Blumenthal +11
CT Capitol Report/MRG10/24 - 10/261846 LV5244Blumenthal +8

All Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. Blumenthal Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. Blumenthal
53.0Blumenthal (D)+8.7
44.3McMahon (R)

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Race Analysis

11/2/10, 6:42am -- The polls show some last minute tightening here to high single digits, at the same time that we saw tightening in the Governor's race. Blumenthal is still in control, assuming that this tightening didn't continue, or accelerate, in the past 48 hours.

10/26/10 -- Time is starting to run out for McMahon.  With the balance of the polling showing Blumenthal at around 55 percent, it's going to be hard for her to pull this off.  It look like she managed to secure the 44 percent of the state that voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but couldn't expand much beyond that.

10/20/10 -- The polls have tightened a bit again, but Blumenthal is still above 50 percent.  McMahon is going to have to knock him down a few points if she is going to win this race.

10/7/10 -- What a difference a few weeks makes.  Blumenthal seems to have righted the ship here, and now leads by around ten points.  He's back in a good position to be the new junior Senator from Connecticut.

9/28/10 -- McMahon has succeeded in turning this into a low single-digit lead for AG Blumenthal.  Quinnipiac and Rasmussen show leads of 3 and 5 points, respectively.  Blumenthal is still right up against 50 percent, and there aren't many undecideds left.  But he's now in real danger of losing this race.

----------Race Preview---------

Connecticut’s realignment toward the Democrats is typical of Northern states. The state’s Democratic Catholic population slowly grew throughout the 19th century, and by the mid-20th century, the Democratic vote began to outnumber the old Yankee Republican vote. In the latter half of the 20th century, the Yankee vote swung Democratic as well, creating a deeply blue state.

At the vanguard of this transformation was the Dodd family. Thomas Dodd, the grandson of Irish immigrants, won election to Congress in 1952, representing Hartford, and later to the Senate. His son, Christopher, followed in his footsteps, winning the eastern 2nd District in 1974, and fighting off the Reagan tide in 1980 to win election to the state’s other Senate seat.

Dodd’s father was felled by ethical problems in 1970, and it looked as though the son might follow in his father’s footsteps earlier this year. But Chris Dodd retired instead, leaving an open seat for Democrats to defend.

The Democratic nominee is Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who has waited in the wings for higher office for almost 20 years. Blumenthal looked like he might be felled by a scandal where he appeared to misrepresent his military service during the Vietnam years, but his polling numbers have held up relatively well throughout the cycle.

His GOP opponent is former WWE CEO Linda McMahon. McMahon waged a capable primary campaign, running smart advertisements touting her experience as a woman who turned a minor sideshow into a multi-billion dollar enterprise. McMahon defeated two opponents, including GOP representative Rob Simmons, in the Republican primary. If she can keep the focus away from the less savory elements of her business, she could make this competitive in the fall.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBlumenthal (D)McMahon (R)Spread
Final Results----55.143.3Blumenthal +11.8
RCP Average10/24 - 10/31--53.044.3Blumenthal +8.7
Rasmussen Reports10/31 - 10/31750 LV5346Blumenthal +7
Quinnipiac10/25 - 10/31930 LV5344Blumenthal +9
PPP (D)10/27 - 10/29759 LV5443Blumenthal +11
CT Capitol Report/MRG10/24 - 10/261846 LV5244Blumenthal +8
Rasmussen Reports10/24 - 10/24750 LV5643Blumenthal +13
Quinnipiac10/18 - 10/24702 LV5442Blumenthal +12
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/23 - 10/231000 LV5342Blumenthal +11
Suffolk University*10/19 - 10/20500 LV5739Blumenthal +18
Rasmussen Reports10/14 - 10/14750 LV5146Blumenthal +5
Quinnipiac10/7 - 10/111119 LV5443Blumenthal +11
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/9 - 10/91000 LV4943Blumenthal +6
Rasmussen Reports10/5 - 10/5750 LV5443Blumenthal +11
CNN/Time10/1 - 10/5773 LV5441Blumenthal +13
CT Capitol Report/MRG10/3 - 10/31623 LV5245Blumenthal +7
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/2 - 10/21000 LV5242Blumenthal +10
PPP (D)9/30 - 10/2810 LV5341Blumenthal +12
Rasmussen Reports9/26 - 9/26500 LV5045Blumenthal +5
Quinnipiac9/21 - 9/261083 LV4946Blumenthal +3
Quinnipiac9/8 - 9/12875 LV5145Blumenthal +6
Rasmussen Reports9/9 - 9/9500 LV5344Blumenthal +9
Rasmussen Reports8/11 - 8/11500 LV4740Blumenthal +7
Quinnipiac7/28 - 8/21299 RV5040Blumenthal +10
Rasmussen Reports7/15 - 7/15500 LV5340Blumenthal +13
Quinnipiac7/7 - 7/131367 RV5437Blumenthal +17
Quinnipiac6/2 - 6/81350 RV5535Blumenthal +20
Rasmussen Reports6/1 - 6/1500 LV5633Blumenthal +23
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/24 - 5/26600 LV5233Blumenthal +19
Quinnipiac5/24 - 5/251159 RV5631Blumenthal +25
Rasmussen Reports5/18 - 5/18500 LV4845Blumenthal +3
Rasmussen Reports5/4 - 5/4500 LV5239Blumenthal +13
Rasmussen Reports4/7 - 4/7500 LV5535Blumenthal +20
Quinnipiac3/9 - 3/151451 RV6128Blumenthal +33
Rasmussen Reports3/2 - 3/2500 LV6031Blumenthal +29
Rasmussen Reports2/1 - 2/1500 LV5636Blumenthal +20
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**1/11 - 1/13600 LV5634Blumenthal +22
Quinnipiac1/8 - 1/121430 RV6423Blumenthal +41
Rasmussen Reports1/6 - 1/6500 LV5834Blumenthal +24
PPP (D)1/4 - 1/5522 LV6028Blumenthal +32