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Colorado Senate - Buck vs. Bennet

Candidates

Michael Bennet

Michael Bennet (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Ken Buck

Ken Buck (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Colorado Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | CO-3 | CO-4 | CO-7

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Senate | CO-4
2006: Governor | CO-4 | CO-5 | CO-7
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBennet (D)Buck (R)Spread
Final Results----47.746.8Bennet +0.9
RCP Average10/26 - 10/31--46.349.3Buck +3.0
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/311059 LV4849Buck +1
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/30 - 10/301000 LV4650Buck +4
McClatchy/Marist10/26 - 10/28615 LV4549Buck +4

All Colorado Senate - Buck vs. Bennet Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Colorado Senate - Buck vs. Bennet
46.3Bennet (D)
49.3Buck (R)+3.0

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Race Analysis

10/30/10 -- Buck's numbers have improved in the latest polls, and he's now opening up a bit of a lead again.  Turnout will be key.

10/20/10 -- It looks like PPP might have been the start of a countertrend.  Reports that Buck refused to prosecute a rape case and a gaffe made during a debate seem to have been setbacks.  Bennet is an incumbent at 45 percent, but he is an appointee, so the "incumbent rule" probably isn't 100 percent applicable to him.

10/7/10 -- Buck seems to have opened up a lead -- most pollsters now have him approaching 50 percent.  It remains to be seen whether the PPP showing Bennet in the lead is an outlier or the beginning of a counter-trend.

----------Race Preview---------

Few states swing the partisan makeup of their Senate delegation as wildly as Colorado. In the 1960s, the state sent two Republicans to Congress. By 1975, it had two Democrats. The 1980s saw a split delegation, and in the 1990s, after Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell switched to the Republican Party, there were again two Republicans. But in 2004 the state replaced Campbell with Ken Salazar, and in 2008 Mark Udall replaced retiring Senator Wayne Allard with a 10 point win over former Congressman Bob Schaffer.

In 2010, President Obama appointed Salazar as his Secretary of the Interior. Governor Bill Ritter in turn shocked everyone by appointing Superintendent of Denver Public Schools Michael Bennet as Salazar's replacement. Bennet's voting record has placed him in the center of the Democratic caucus, and somewhat to Udall’s right. Like Blanche Lincoln, he earned a primary challenge from the left and managed to survive.

On the GOP side, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, who has made some unforced errors of his own, earned the GOP nod in a tight race over former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. Buck has fared about as well as Norton in polling against Bennet, who has never run a competitive statewide race, and suffers from a lack of charisma. Bennet's approval ratings are in the 30s, so he will probably hope that the divisive GOP governor's race brings down the entire statewide ticket.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBennet (D)Buck (R)Spread
Final Results----47.746.8Bennet +0.9
RCP Average10/26 - 10/31--46.349.3Buck +3.0
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/311059 LV4849Buck +1
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/30 - 10/301000 LV4650Buck +4
McClatchy/Marist10/26 - 10/28615 LV4549Buck +4
CNN/Time10/20 - 10/26829 LV4647Buck +1
Rasmussen Reports10/25 - 10/25750 LV4448Buck +4
PPP (D)10/21 - 10/23818 LV4747Tie
Denver Post/SurveyUSA10/19 - 10/21621 LV4747Tie
Reuters/Ipsos10/15 - 10/17405 LV4548Buck +3
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/16 - 10/161000 LV4546Buck +1
Rasmussen Reports10/14 - 10/14750 LV4547Buck +2
Rasmussen Reports10/3 - 10/3750 LV4550Buck +5
PPP (D)9/30 - 10/2834 LV4645Bennet +1
Denver Post/SurveyUSA9/28 - 9/30647 LV4348Buck +5
McClatchy/Marist9/26 - 9/28537 LV4250Buck +8
Rasmussen Reports9/27 - 9/27750 LV4351Buck +8
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/25 - 9/251000 LV4347Buck +4
CNN/Time9/17 - 9/21860 LV4449Buck +5
Rasmussen Reports9/14 - 9/14750 LV4549Buck +4
POS/FM38/28 - 9/1473 LV4340Bennet +3
Rasmussen Reports8/29 - 8/29750 LV4549Buck +4
Reuters/Ipsos8/20 - 8/22453 LV4049Buck +9
Rasmussen Reports8/11 - 8/11750 LV4146Buck +5
PPP (D)8/7 - 8/81015 RV4643Bennet +3
Denver Post/SurveyUSA7/27 - 7/29950 RV4343Tie
Rasmussen Reports7/26 - 7/26500 LV4248Buck +6
Rasmussen Reports7/8 - 7/8500 LV3948Buck +9
Denver Post/SurveyUSA6/15 - 6/171565 RV4346Buck +3
Rasmussen Reports6/7 - 6/7500 LV4146Buck +5
PPP (D)5/14 - 5/161060 LV4539Bennet +6
Rasmussen Reports5/3 - 5/3500 LV4148Buck +7
Rasmussen Reports4/5 - 4/5500 LV4044Buck +4
PPP (D)3/5 - 3/8580 LV4640Bennet +6
Rasmussen Reports3/2 - 3/2500 LV3844Buck +6
Rasmussen Reports2/2 - 2/2500 LV4145Buck +4
Rasmussen Reports1/13 - 1/13500 LV3843Buck +5
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**1/11 - 1/13600 LV4138Bennet +3
Rasmussen Reports12/8 - 12/8500 LV3842Buck +4
Rasmussen Reports9/9 - 9/9500 LV4337Bennet +6
PPP (D)8/14 - 8/16969 LV3935Bennet +4
PPP (D)4/17 - 4/191050 LV4034Bennet +6