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California Senate - Boxer vs. Fiorina

Candidates

Barbara Boxer

Barbara Boxer (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Carly Fiorina

Carly Fiorina (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

California Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races: 
Governor | CA-3 | CA-11 | CA-18 | CA-20 | CA-45 | CA-47

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | CA-4
2006: Governor | CA-4 | CA-11
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBoxer (D)Fiorina (R)Spread
Final Results----52.142.3Boxer +9.8
RCP Average10/26 - 10/31--48.343.3Boxer +5.0
PPP (D)10/29 - 10/31882 LV5046Boxer +4
SurveyUSA10/26 - 10/31587 LV4638Boxer +8
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV4946Boxer +3

All California Senate - Boxer vs. Fiorina Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
California Senate - Boxer vs. Fiorina
48.3Boxer (D)+5.0
43.3Fiorina (R)

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Race Analysis

11/2/10 -- The polls now show Boxer with a 5-point lead, although they include a SurveyUSA poll with 16 percent either undecided or going for a third party candidate.  Among people who have already voted, all three pollsters in the average are showing a tighter race.

10/29/10 -- Three new polls show a 3-5 point race here right now, tighter than some of the 8-9 point polls we've been getting.

10/27/10 -- Since yesterday's update we've received three new polls, two of which show Boxer's lead at 9 points.  She now leads by six in the RCP Average.

10/26/10 -- If we throw out Boxer's best and worst poll, her lead is pegged at somewhere between one and five points.  It is better for her than if she were trailing, but she's still an established incumbent under 50 percent.

10/20/10 -- Fiorina has steadily whittled away at Boxer's lead, and now it is down to a point.  Boxer is well below 50 percent, which is not a great place for her to be.

10/7/10 -- Fiorina has punched back with advertisements, and has closed the gap somewhat.  Boxer remains below 50 percent, but is still well within the danger zone.  In addition, some of these polls are seeing an electorate with a higher percentage of Democrats than 2008.  This seems unlikely.

9/28/10 -- Boxer has been on the air against Fiorina, and it seems to have opened up a gap between the two.  But it is worth noting that Boxer's numbers haven't improved that much; it is Fiorina's numbers going down.  Boxer is still below 50 percent, and is still vulnerable.

----------Race Preview---------

California politics have long been dominated by sharp divides between north and south, as well as coastal versus inland areas. Today, the dominant divide is the east-west divide that emerged decades ago. The political affiliations of the divide are flipped, however, with Democrats representing the coastal areas and the Republicans stronger farther inland. But even these inland areas abandoned the Republicans in 2006 and 2008 as the subprime meltdown battered the state.

Few thought at the beginning of this cycle that the bad economy would cause the state’s voters to turn on the Democrats in 2010, but that appears to be what has happened. Although Senator Barbara Boxer has never been the world’s most popular senator – she won relatively close races in 1992 and 1998 before winning by 20 points in 2004 – she was thought to be reasonably safe after Barack Obama cruised to a 61-37 win in California in 2008.

But Boxer’s liberal voting record – from objecting to the certification of Ohio’s 2004 Electoral College votes to supporting a bill to censure George W. Bush – may be too liberal even for the Golden State. Polling shows the three-term senator only narrowly leading former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiornia. SurveyUSA has shown majorities disapproving of the senator, and polling this cycle has consistently shown her below 50 percent. Tellingly, the SurveyUSA polls have shown Boxer’s biggest weakness coming in the Inland Empire and Central Valley – the areas of the state hardest hit by the subprime meltdown. As of August, there’s a real chance that Boxer will loses this one.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBoxer (D)Fiorina (R)Spread
Final Results----52.142.3Boxer +9.8
RCP Average10/26 - 10/31--48.343.3Boxer +5.0
PPP (D)10/29 - 10/31882 LV5046Boxer +4
SurveyUSA10/26 - 10/31587 LV4638Boxer +8
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV4946Boxer +3
CNN/Time10/20 - 10/26888 LV5045Boxer +5
Field10/14 - 10/261092 LV4941Boxer +8
SurveyUSA10/21 - 10/25594 LV4540Boxer +5
Suffolk University10/21 - 10/24600 LV5243Boxer +9
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/23 - 10/231000 LV4844Boxer +4
PPP (D)10/21 - 10/23622 LV5243Boxer +9
Rasmussen Reports10/21 - 10/21750 LV4846Boxer +2
LA Times/USC10/13 - 10/20922 LV5042Boxer +8
SurveyUSA10/15 - 10/18621 LV4644Boxer +2
PPIC10/10 - 10/171067 LV4338Boxer +5
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/16 - 10/161000 LV4844Boxer +4
Wilson Research (R)10/13 - 10/14800 LV4346Fiorina +3
Reuters/Ipsos10/12 - 10/14448 LV4645Boxer +1
Rasmussen Reports10/13 - 10/13750 LV4946Boxer +3
Reuters/Ipsos10/2 - 10/4448 LV4945Boxer +4
Rasmussen Reports10/3 - 10/3750 LV4945Boxer +4
SurveyUSA9/30 - 10/3670 LV4643Boxer +3
CNN/Time9/24 - 9/28786 LV5243Boxer +9
PPIC9/19 - 9/261104 LV4235Boxer +7
LA Times/USC9/15 - 9/22887 LV5143Boxer +8
SurveyUSA9/19 - 9/21610 LV4943Boxer +6
Field9/14 - 9/21599 LV4741Boxer +6
Rasmussen Reports9/20 - 9/20750 LV4743Boxer +4
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/18 - 9/181000 LV4746Boxer +1
PPP (D)9/14 - 9/16630 LV5042Boxer +8
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/11 - 9/111000 LV4644Boxer +2
CNN/Time9/2 - 9/7866 RV4844Boxer +4
Rasmussen Reports9/6 - 9/6750 LV4748Fiorina +1
SurveyUSA8/31 - 9/1569 LV4648Fiorina +2
Rasmussen Reports8/24 - 8/24750 LV4944Boxer +5
SurveyUSA8/9 - 8/11602 LV4247Fiorina +5
Rasmussen Reports8/3 - 8/3750 LV4540Boxer +5
PPP (D)7/23 - 7/25614 RV4940Boxer +9
PPIC7/6 - 7/201321 LV3934Boxer +5
Rasmussen Reports7/12 - 7/12500 LV4942Boxer +7
SurveyUSA7/8 - 7/11614 LV4547Fiorina +2
Field6/22 - 7/51005 LV4744Boxer +3
Reuters/Ipsos6/25 - 6/27600 RV4541Boxer +4
Rasmussen Reports6/9 - 6/9500 LV4843Boxer +5
LA Times/USC5/19 - 5/261506 RV4438Boxer +6
PPP (D)5/21 - 5/23921 RV4542Boxer +3
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/17 - 5/19600 LV4839Boxer +9
PPIC5/9 - 5/161168 LV4839Boxer +9
Rasmussen Reports5/12 - 5/12500 LV4538Boxer +7
Rasmussen Reports4/12 - 4/12500 LV4238Boxer +4
PPIC3/9 - 3/161102 LV4443Boxer +1
Field3/9 - 3/15748 LV4544Boxer +1
Rasmussen Reports3/11 - 3/11500 LV4640Boxer +6
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**3/8 - 3/10600 LV4940Boxer +9
Rasmussen Reports2/11 - 2/11500 LV4642Boxer +4
PPIC1/12 - 1/191223 LV4840Boxer +8
Field1/5 - 1/17958 LV5035Boxer +15
Rasmussen Reports1/14 - 1/14500 LV4643Boxer +3
Rasmussen Reports11/17 - 11/17500 LV4637Boxer +9
Field9/18 - 10/61005 RV4935Boxer +14
Rasmussen Reports9/23 - 9/23500 LV4939Boxer +10
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**8/9 - 8/12600 LV5231Boxer +21
Rasmussen Reports7/22 - 7/22500 LV4541Boxer +4
Field2/20 - 3/1761 RV5525Boxer +30