2010 Senate Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Senate Map

2010 House Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Generic Congressional Ballot
Final House Map

2010 Governor Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Governors Map

Senate 2010 Polls
News & Election Videos

Arizona Senate - McCain vs. Glassman

Candidates

Rodney Glassman

Rodney Glassman (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

John McCain

John McCain (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Arizona Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | AZ-1 | AZ-3 | AZ-5 | AZ-7 | AZ-8

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | AZ-1 | AZ-3
2006: Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-5 | AZ-8
2004: President | AZ-1

Polling Data

PollDateSampleGlassman (D)McCain (R)Spread
Final Results----34.659.3McCain +24.7
RCP Average10/1 - 10/28--30.754.7McCain +24.0
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28500 LV3252McCain +20
Daily Kos/PPP (D)10/23 - 10/24664 LV3856McCain +18
Behavior Research Center10/1 - 10/10450 LV2256McCain +34

All Arizona Senate - McCain vs. Glassman Polling Data

Race Analysis

It was the air conditioning that did it. Like most states settled by Southerners, Arizona was overwhelmingly Democratic to begin with. The state elected only Democrats to Congress and the Senate (with one exception) for the first 40 years of its existence. The basic stability of the state’s copper mining economy was propped up by the New Deal, which helped entrench such legendary figures as conservative Democrat Carl Hayden, who represented the state from 1912-1968 in Congress and the Senate.

But under the surface, enormous changes were taking place. In 1906 Willis Haviland Carrier was granted US Patent #808897, the "apparatus for treating air." As air conditioning became adapted for home life, it made life in the Arizona desert more palatable, and, abetted by its positioning on the road to Southern California, an influx of people began. These immigrants came disproportionately from the Midwest, and they brought their Republican voting habits with them.

Republicans developed a critical mass in 1952, when John Rhodes defeated 16-year incumbent Democrat John Murdock by eight points in the Maricopa county-based 1st District that year, while Phoenix department store owner Barry Goldwater defeated Senate Majority Leader Ernest McFarland by two points statewide (ironically, this set the stage for the eventual rise of Lyndon Johnson to the majority leader's office, who used that position as a springboard to the presidency and his drubbing of Goldwater in 1964).

Goldwater was succeeded by John McCain, who of course lost the presidency to Barack Obama in 2008. McCain has been an extremely successful vote-getter, even as Arizona has inched back toward the Democrats over the past two decades. The main threat to his candidacy came from a primary challenge from former 5th District Representative J.D. Hayworth. But Hayworth’s candidacy was undermined by previous statements on issues and an infomercial explaining how people can get free money from the government.

McCain, by contrast, began shifting to the right on several issues after losing the presidency, and seems to have kept ahead of public opinion. Polling has consistently shown McCain with a lead over his general election opponent, Rodney Glassman.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleGlassman (D)McCain (R)Spread
Final Results----34.659.3McCain +24.7
RCP Average10/1 - 10/28--30.754.7McCain +24.0
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28500 LV3252McCain +20
Daily Kos/PPP (D)10/23 - 10/24664 LV3856McCain +18
Behavior Research Center10/1 - 10/10450 LV2256McCain +34
Rasmussen Reports10/3 - 10/3500 LV3354McCain +21
Rasmussen Reports9/7 - 9/7500 LV3751McCain +14
Rasmussen Reports8/25 - 8/25500 LV3153McCain +22
Rasmussen Reports7/29 - 7/29500 LV3453McCain +19
Rasmussen Reports5/17 - 5/171000 LV2857McCain +29
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/3 - 5/5600 LV3548McCain +13
PPP (D)4/23 - 4/25813 LV3349McCain +16
Behavior Research Center4/12 - 4/25666 RV2446McCain +22
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**3/29 - 3/31600 LV3352McCain +19