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Arkansas Senate - Boozman vs. Lincoln

Candidates

John Boozman

John Boozman (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Blanche Lincoln

Blanche Lincoln (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Arkansas Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races: GovernorAR-1 | AR-2 | AR-4

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President
2006: Governor | AR-1 | AR-2 | AR-3 | AR-4
2004: President | Senate | AR-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBoozman (R)Lincoln (D)Spread
Final Results----58.036.9Boozman +21.1
RCP Average10/8 - 10/28--54.735.0Boozman +19.7
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28500 LV5536Boozman +19
The Arkansas Poll10/8 - 10/20566 LV5435Boozman +19
Mason-Dixon10/15 - 10/19625 LV5534Boozman +21

All Arkansas Senate - Boozman vs. Lincoln Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Arkansas Senate - Boozman vs. Lincoln
54.7Boozman (R)+19.7
35.0Lincoln (D)

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Race Analysis

10/7/10 -- The polls have started to tick up slightly for Lincoln, but it is nowhere near enough for her to win. While she's no longer looking like she will break the record for lowest re-elect in history, she's still in the neighborhood of a bottom ten performance.

----------Race Preview---------

Senator Blanche Lincoln’s career started out promising enough.  The one-time congressional receptionist ran a successful primary campaign against her former boss in 1992 and then cruised through the November general election with a 40-point win. After taking a two-year hiatus from Congress to give birth to her twins, she again won a Senate seat by a large margin in 1998.

But things began to get shaky for Lincoln after that. Her voting record was moderate, with a liberal tinge, and in 2004 she won by only a 56-44 margin against an opponent who spent about $100,000.

Then Obama was elected, and the Democrats surged (eventually) to a 60-seat majority. The administration needed every vote it could possibly get, and Lincoln voted a fairly liberal line, angering Arkansas conservatives. On the other hand, whenever she deviated from the administration, she often had the power to kill the initiative in question (for example, the public option). This earned her the enmity of the left.

Thus, Lincoln found herself faced with a strong primary challenge from the left as well as a strong general election challenge from the right. She narrowly survived the primary from Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter but is a much longer shot against Congressman John Boozman (the younger brother of the Republican Lincoln defeated in 1998). Only six incumbent senators have seen their re-elects drop below 40 percent of the two-party vote since we began directly electing senators. Given the polling we’ve seen recently, Lincoln stands a good chance of becoming number seven. She might even become the recordholder if she falls below 35 percent (set in 1932 by Sen. Wesley L. Jones of Washington). You never want to bet against an incumbent, but it is hard to see how Lincoln pulls this one out.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBoozman (R)Lincoln (D)Spread
Final Results----58.036.9Boozman +21.1
RCP Average10/8 - 10/28--54.735.0Boozman +19.7
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28500 LV5536Boozman +19
The Arkansas Poll10/8 - 10/20566 LV5435Boozman +19
CNN/Time10/15 - 10/19809 LV5541Boozman +14
Mason-Dixon10/15 - 10/19625 LV5534Boozman +21
Rasmussen Reports9/30 - 9/30500 LV5537Boozman +18
Reuters/Ipsos9/17 - 9/19436 LV5339Boozman +14
Talk Business Poll9/16 - 9/16573 LV5629Boozman +27
Mason-Dixon9/12 - 9/14625 LV5134Boozman +17
Rasmussen Reports8/18 - 8/18500 LV6527Boozman +38
Rasmussen Reports7/20 - 7/20500 LV6035Boozman +25
Reuters/Ipsos7/16 - 7/18600 RV5435Boozman +19
Talk Business Poll7/17 - 7/17793 LV5732Boozman +25
Magellan Strategies (R)7/12 - 7/12897 LV6029Boozman +31
Rasmussen Reports6/15 - 6/15500 LV6132Boozman +29
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/24 - 5/26600 LV5838Boozman +20
Rasmussen Reports5/19 - 5/19500 LV6628Boozman +38
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/10 - 5/12600 LV5440Boozman +14
Mason-Dixon5/3 - 5/5625 LV5235Boozman +17
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**4/26 - 4/28600 LV5242Boozman +10
Rasmussen Reports4/26 - 4/26500 LV5729Boozman +28
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**4/12 - 4/14600 LV5043Boozman +7
Rasmussen Reports3/30 - 3/30500 LV5136Boozman +15
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**3/22 - 3/24600 LV4942Boozman +7
Rasmussen Reports3/1 - 3/1500 LV4839Boozman +9
Rasmussen Reports2/1 - 2/1500 LV5435Boozman +19
PPP (D)1/29 - 1/31810 RV5633Boozman +23