|Poll||Date||Sample||Hurt (R)||Perriello (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||50.9||47.0||Hurt +3.9|
|SurveyUSA*||10/27 - 10/27||524 LV||51||43||Hurt +8|
|Roanoke College||10/5 - 10/14||567 LV||46||40||Hurt +6|
|SurveyUSA*||10/8 - 10/11||613 LV||52||41||Hurt +11|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||9/28 - 9/30||403 LV||45||44||Hurt +1|
|SurveyUSA||9/24 - 9/27||624 LV||58||35||Hurt +23|
|SurveyUSA||8/31 - 9/1||581 LV||61||35||Hurt +26|
|AAF/Ayers (R)||7/28 - 8/1||400 LV||49||43||Hurt +6|
|SurveyUSA||7/16 - 7/19||591 LV||58||35||Hurt +23|
|PPP (D)||2/5 - 2/10||924 RV||44||44||Tie|
|2008: Perriello (D) 50.1%, Goode (R) 49.9%||2008: McCain (R) 51%, Obama (D) 48%|
|2006: Goode (R) 59%, Weed (D) 40%||2004: Bush (R) 56%, Kerry (D) 43%|
|2004: Goode (R) 64%, Weed (D) 36%||2000: Bush (R) 55%, Gore (D) 42%|
10/29/10 -- Obama's Charlottesville visit drew thousands of students and turned away more, but it isn't really clear that it will be enough to save Perriello. It may have turned off conservative voters elsewhere in the district. This is probably a single-digit race, but Perriello is definitely the underdog.
10/6/10 -- This is a surprisingly well-polled House race. The margins in the race vary widely, from a one-point Hurt lead to a stunning 23-point Hurt lead. But there are two constants here -- Hurt is in the lead, and Perriello is mired somewhere in the mid- to low 40s in the polls. Few incumbents can survive there.
Southside Virginia was the last part of the Commonwealth to swing toward the Republicans. This was George Wallace country in 1968, and Jimmy Carter country in 1976. In 1980, every congressional district in Virginia elected a Republican, save for the 5th. To this day, it has never elected a Republican to replace a Democrat.
In 1996, L.F. Payne retired to concentrate on a bid for lieutenant governor. He was replaced by Virgil Goode, a conservative Democrat who voted more frequently with Republicans than with Democrats. Goode declared himself an independent who caucused with Republicans in 2000, then officially joined the party in 2002. But a series of controversial comments, combined with a surge of student votes in Charlottesville and African American votes in Southside proved to be too much for him to overcome. He lost by 727 votes to Tom Perriello.
Perriello has taken a unique tack in this conservative district, supporting almost all of the Obama administration’s initiatives, including the health care bill. His willingness to stand on principle has earned him his fair share of admirers. But it isn’t clear how it will play in his district. He’s one of the most endangered Democrats in the House, and will face Republican state Senator Rob Hurt in the general election.