|Poll||Date||Sample||Nye (D)||Rigell (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||42.5||53.2||Rigell +10.7|
|Virginian-Pilot/CNU||10/15 - 10/21||490 LV||41||42||Rigell +1|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||9/25 - 9/27||397 LV||36||42||Rigell +6|
|2008: Nye (D) 52%, Drake (R) 48%||2008: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 48%
|2006: Drake (R) 51%, Kellam (D) 48%||2004: Bush (R) 58%, Kerry (D) 42%|
|2004: Drake (R) 55%, Ashe (D) 45%||2000: Bush (R) 55%, Gore (D) 43%|
10/6/10 -- This race was curiously underpolled for most of the cycle, but we finally have a non-campaign poll. It shows what the campaign polls have generally shown: Nye is in a close race, but is well under the 50 percent threshold an incumbent needs to reach to begin to feel safe.
The 2nd District is roughly comprised of the City of Virginia Beach, and the two Virginia counties on the Delmarva Peninsula (Accomack and Northampton). The district has one of the highest concentrations of military personnel in the country. The area had enough northern transplants that there was a pocket of Republican strength here long before the realignment of the 1960s; it elected a Republican in 1928 and again in 1930.
George W. Bush ran well in the district, winning it with 55 percent of the vote in 2006 and 58 percent in 2008. But a high turnout among African Americans, combined with national dissatisfaction with the Republican Party, drove President Obama to a 51-49 percent win over Navy veteran John McCain. The tide swept out the district’s two-term Republican officeholder, Thelma Drake, and put Glenn Nye, a thirty-five year old scion of a famous Virginia family, in office.
Nye has generally voted a conservative line, but nevertheless drew a top-tier opponent in Republican businessman Scott Rigell. This will be a close, hard-fought election, but the Republican’s road map to victory is complicated by the candidacy of retired Naval Captain and former Virginia Beach Republican Chairman Kenny Golden, who is running as a Tea Party candidate.