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Texas 23rd District - Canseco vs. Rodriguez

Candidates

Quico Canseco

Quico Canseco (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Ciro Rodriguez

Ciro Rodriguez (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Texas Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | TX-15 | TX-17 | TX-25 | TX-27

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Senate | TX-22
2006: Governor | Senate | TX-22
2004: President | TX-19 | TX-32

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCanseco (R)Rodriguez (D)Spread
Final Results----49.444.4Canseco +5.0
TX23

Previous Election Results

  2008: Rodriguez (D) 56%, Larson (R) 42%   2008: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 48%
  2006: Rodriguez (D) 54%, Bonilla (R) 46%   2004: Bush (R) 57%, Kerry (D) 43%
  2004: Bonilla (R) 69%, Sullivan (D) 29%   2000: Bush (R) 54%, Gore (D) 46%

Race Analysis

The 23rd district in Texas is a judicial creation. The district was represented for over a decade by Representative Henry Bonilla, but in 2006 the Supreme Court of the United States declared that Bonilla’s district violated the Voting Rights Act of 1965. A federal judge substantially increased the Hispanic population of the district, and Bonilla lost to Ciro Rodriguez (who had been upset in a primary by Henry Cuellar in the neighboring 28th district a few years earlier). While the district stretches across the vast, empty expanses of southwest Texas, about 2/3 of the district’s population is located in Bexar County (San Antonio). 

Rodriguez has been a fairly – though not uniformly – dependable vote for the Democratic leadership, which is a tricky prospect in a district that still gave John McCain 48 percent of the vote. He has drawn a top-tier challenger in businessman Quico Canseco, who lost in the primary in 2008. Rodriguez finished with 56 percent of the vote in 2008, a very good Democratic year. So, while the fundamentals of the district aren’t terrible for Rodriguez, he should face his stiffest challenge from a Republican in his career.