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Tennessee 6th District - Black vs. Carter


Diane Black

Diane Black (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Brett Carter

Brett Carter (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Tennessee Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | TN-4 | TN-5 | TN-8

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | Senate
2006: Governor | Senate
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBlack (R)Carter (D)Spread
Final Results----67.329.4Black +37.9

Previous Election Results

  2008: Gordon (D) 74%, Baker (R) 26%   2008: McCain (R) 62%, Obama (D) 37%
  2006: Gordon (D) 67%, Davis (R) 31%   2004: Bush (R) 60%, Kerry (D) 40%
  2004: Gordon (D) 64%, Demas (D) 34%   2000: Bush (R) 49%, Gore (D) 49%

Race Analysis

When this district elected Bart Gordon in 1984, it was still largely the same rural district that had been sending conservative Democrats to Congress for decades. Even his immediate predecessor, one Albert Gore, Jr., had a conservative record in those days. But over time, the district became increasingly suburbanized, as the Nashville suburbs spilled over into it. In 1984 it gave Ronald Reagan 59 percent of the vote – right at his national average.  In 2008 it gave John McCain 62 percent of the vote, well over his national average.

The congressman from the 6th is Bart Gordon. Gordon decided to call it a career in the middle of the health care debate, and, after announcing his retirement, cast one of the deciding votes in favor of that legislation.

That decision pretty well handed the seat over to the Republicans, who nominated state Senator Diane Black. The Democrats had difficulty finding a candidate and settled on attorney Brett Carter. Carter has struggled to raise money, and is the distinct underdog in this district. Black will likely be the first Republican to represent some of these counties in Congress – ever.