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South Dakota At-Large - Noem vs. Herseth Sandlin


Kristi Noem

Kristi Noem (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

South Dakota Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races: Governor

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | Senate
2006: Governor
2004: President | Senate | SD-AL

Polling Data

PollDateSampleNoem (R)Herseth Sandlin (D)Spread
Final Results----48.145.9Noem +2.2
Argus Leader/KELO/Mason-Dixon10/20 - 10/21800 LV4543Noem +2
Rasmussen Reports10/20 - 10/20500 LV4944Noem +5
The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)10/16 - 10/19399 LV4245Herseth Sandlin +3
Rasmussen Reports10/4 - 10/4500 LV4744Noem +3
Rasmussen Reports9/8 - 9/8500 LV4547Herseth Sandlin +2
Rasmussen Reports8/3 - 8/3500 LV5142Noem +9
Rasmussen Reports7/6 - 7/6500 LV4944Noem +5
Rasmussen Reports6/10 - 6/10500 LV5341Noem +12
Rasmussen Reports4/21 - 4/21500 LV3550Herseth Sandlin +15
Rasmussen Reports3/25 - 3/25500 LV3546Herseth Sandlin +11

Previous Election Results

  2008: Herseth Sandlin (D) 68%, Lien (R) 32%   2008: McCain (R) 53%, Obama (D) 45%
  2006: Herseth Sandlin (D) 69%, Graf (R) 29%   2004: Bush (R) 60%, Kerry (D) 38%
  2004: Herseth Sandlin (D) 53%, Diedrich (R) 46%   2000: Bush (R) 60%, Gore (D) 38%

Race Analysis

One of the earliest signs that 2010 was going to be a rough year was the declining fortunes of Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. She was elected to the House to represent this solidly Republican state in a 2004 special election, after Representative Bill Janklow was convicted of manslaughter after causing an automobile accident. In the House, Herseth compiled a moderate-to-conservative voting record, opposing the President’s health care bill and numerous other administration initiatives.

Herseth Sandlin will face state legislator Kristi Noem. Noem, who was probably the most conservative candidate to emerge from the Republican primary, has led Herseth Sandlin in a number of polls, and was above 50 percent in most polling over the summer. Herseth Sandlin is something of the proverbial canary in the coal mine for Democrats – if she can’t hold on, then a number of Democrats with moderate voting records in conservative districts are likely to find themselves in big, big trouble this November.