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Pennsylvania 3rd District - Kelly vs. Dahlkemper


Kathy Dahlkemper

Kathy Dahlkemper (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Mike Kelly

Mike Kelly (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Pennsylvania Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | Senate | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10 | PA-11 | PA-12 | PA-13 | PA-15 | PA-17

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | PA-3 | PA-10 | PA-11
2006: Senate | Governor | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10
2004: President | Senate | PA-13

Polling Data

PollDateSampleDahlkemper (D)Kelly (R)Spread
Final Results----44.355.7Kelly +11.4
Mercyhurst College9/22 - 10/5634 RV3744Kelly +7
The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)9/25 - 9/27401 LV3649Kelly +13
Franklin & Marshall9/14 - 9/19418 LV3844Kelly +6
AAF/Ayers (R)7/28 - 8/1400 LV3852Kelly +14

Previous Election Results

  2008: Dahlkemper (D) 51%, English (R) 49%   2008: McCain (R) 49%, Obama (D) 49%
  2006: English (R) 54%, Porter (D) 42%   2004: Bush (R) 53%, Kerry (D) 46%
  2004: English (R) 60%, Porter (D) 40%   2000: Bush (R) 50%, Gore (D) 46%

Race Analysis

10/6/10 --Two polls taken in the past few weeks have shown Dahlkemper with 38 percent and 36 percent of the vote.  Very few incumbents with those poll numbers 27 days out from an election go on to win.

----------Race Preview---------

The 3rd district is really two districts.  The first district is the city of Erie, a gritty, industrial city that is heavily Democratic.  Erie and its adjacent precincts gave Barack Obama roughly 63 percent of the vote.

The second district lies in the outskirts of Erie County.  That district is heavily Republican.  The net result of combining these districts is something of a tie -- a district that leans a touch toward the Republicans in most elections.

2008 was not "most elections," and the district tossed out its GOP Congressman, Phil English.  English's replacement, Kathy Dahlkemper, has voted a fairly reliable Democratic line; she drew attention as a "Stupak Democrat," who held out her vote on the health care bill until the last minute.  With the environment turning against the Democratic party, she likely faces a very tough time getting re-elected.