|Poll||Date||Sample||Boccieri (D)||Renacci (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||41.3||52.1||Renacci +10.8|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||9/25 - 9/27||401 LV||39||42||Renacci +3|
|AAF/Ayers (R)||8/16 - 8/17||400 LV||35||49||Renacci +14|
|2008: Boccieri (D) 55%, Schuring (R) 45%||2008: McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 48%|
|2006: Regula (R) 58%, Shaw (D) 42%||2004: Bush (R) 54%, Kerry (D) 46%|
|2004: Regula (R) 60%, Seemann (D) 33%||2000: Bush (R) 56%, Gore (D) 44%|
10/6/10 -- Two non-campaign polls have been taken in this race, and both show roughly the same salient thing: Congressman John Boccieri is not only under 50 percent, he's under 40 percent of the vote in this swing district. That's a dangerous place for any incumbent to be.
For 36 years, Ohio's 16th District was represented by Republican Congressman Ralph Regula. The Canton-based district is historically Republican, and before 2006, Regula had only fallen below 60 percent of the vote once.
But in that year, a little-known, underfunded ($0 raised) Democrat named Thomas Shaw held Regula to 58 percent. At the same time, Ted Strickland carried the district with 64 percent, and liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown carried it with 57 percent in his Senate race. The 84 year old Regula decided to call it a career. He was replaced by a Democrat, John Boccieri, who won by ten points.
Boccieri's district is still a swing district, yet he has voted with his party most of the time. He was a high profile vote for the health care bill, having voted against it the first time. He has a tough re-election fight ahead of him.