|Poll||Date||Sample||Kilroy (D)||Stivers (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||41.3||54.2||Stivers +12.9|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||9/28 - 9/30||404 LV||38||47||Stivers +9|
|AAF/Ayers (R)||8/16 - 8/21||400 LV||44||49||Stivers +5|
|WeAskAmerica||8/4 - 8/4||998 RV||41||46||Stivers +5|
|2008: Kilroy (D) 46%, Stivers (R) 45%||2008: Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 45%|
|2006: Pryce (R) 50.1%, Kilroy (D) 49.6%||2004: Bush (R) 50%, Kerry (D) 49%|
|2004: Pryce (R) 60%, Brownl (D) 40%||2000: Bush (R) 54%, Gore (D) 46%|
10/6/10 -- Three polls show Kilroy trailing Stivers, and she's consistently stuck at 41 percent. Incumbents who find themselves with these kinds of numbers usually lose. Kilroy is in deep trouble.
Ohio's 15th district is western Columbus and its suburbs. It includes upper class inner suburbs like Upper Arlington, but extends into the outer suburbs and exurbs of the city. This is politically marginal territory, although the overall tilt of the district is a tick toward the Democrats.
The district was represented by Deborah Pryce for almost two decades. Pryce was nearly upended in 2006 by Mary Jo Kilroy, and decided not to run again in 2008. Kilroy faced off against Republican Steve Stivers last cycle, in what turned out to be a surprisingly close race. She trailed on election night, but as absentee ballots trickled in, she found herself in the lead.
Stivers is back for the rematch in a very different environment. Kilroy has proved to be a reliable Democratic vote in Washington, and that isn't likely to play well in this swing district among the electorate that we see shaping up this time around.