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Ohio 15th District - Stivers vs. Kilroy

Candidates

Mary Jo Kilroy

Mary Jo Kilroy (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Steve Stivers

Steve Stivers (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Ohio Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | Senate | OH-1 | OH-6 | OH-10 | OH-12 | OH-13 | OH-16 | OH-18

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-16
2006: Sen | Gov | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-18
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleKilroy (D)Stivers (R)Spread
Final Results----41.354.2Stivers +12.9
The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)9/28 - 9/30404 LV3847Stivers +9
AAF/Ayers (R)8/16 - 8/21400 LV4449Stivers +5
WeAskAmerica8/4 - 8/4998 RV4146Stivers +5
OH15

Previous Election Results

  2008: Kilroy (D) 46%, Stivers (R) 45%   2008: Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 45%
  2006: Pryce (R) 50.1%, Kilroy (D) 49.6%   2004: Bush (R) 50%, Kerry (D) 49%
  2004: Pryce (R) 60%, Brownl (D) 40%   2000: Bush (R) 54%, Gore (D) 46%

Race Analysis

10/6/10 -- Three polls show Kilroy trailing Stivers, and she's consistently stuck at 41 percent.  Incumbents who find themselves with these kinds of numbers usually lose. Kilroy is in deep trouble.

----------Race Preview---------

Ohio's 15th district is western Columbus and its suburbs.  It includes upper class inner suburbs like Upper Arlington, but extends into the outer suburbs and exurbs of the city.  This is politically marginal territory, although the overall tilt of the district is a tick toward the Democrats.

The district was represented by Deborah Pryce for almost two decades.  Pryce was nearly upended in 2006 by Mary Jo Kilroy, and decided not to run again in 2008.  Kilroy faced off against Republican Steve Stivers last cycle, in what turned out to be a surprisingly close race.  She trailed on election night, but as absentee ballots trickled in, she found herself in the lead. 

Stivers is back for the rematch in a very different environment.  Kilroy has proved to be a reliable Democratic vote in Washington, and that isn't likely to play well in this swing district among the electorate that we see shaping up this time around.