----------PAST KEY RACES----------
|Poll||Date||Sample||Gomez (R)||Israel (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||42.9||56.3||Israel +13.4|
10/28/10 -- Steve Israel picked up this House seat from Republicans in the 2000 election. Redistricting made it more comfortably Democratic, and he has won the seat with ease since then.
This year, though, the New York suburbs have moved heavily against the Democrats, and Israel could become a victim of this movement. In the absence of any polling we can't know exactly where things stand, and his opponent is weak. But we can't write this race off entirely, either.