----------PAST KEY RACES----------
|Poll||Date||Sample||Arcuri (D)||Hanna (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||46.9||53.1||Hanna +6.2|
|Siena||10/23 - 10/25||632 LV||48||43||Arcuri +5|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||10/12 - 10/14||400 LV||47||37||Arcuri +10|
|Siena||9/13 - 9/15||605 LV||48||40||Arcuri +8|
|2008: Arcuri (D) 52%, Hanna (R) 248%||2008: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 48%
|2006: Arcuri (D) 54%, Meier (R) 45%||2004: Bush (R) 52%, Kerry (D) 46%
|2004: Boehlert (R) 57%, Miller (D) 34%||2000: Gore (D) 48%, Bush (R) 48%|
10/28/10 -- Arcuri barely won in 2008, but he's actually polling pretty decently this cycle. He's below 50 percent, but has an 8-point or so lead over his opponent.
The 24th Congressional District is in many ways the upstate New York counties that were left over after districts were created for Syracuse, Albany and the North Country. Its major population centers are small cities like Utica and Rome, and nearly half of the district’s population lives in rural areas.
For years the district sent Republicans to Congress, but in 2006 it broke with tradition. It elected Michael Arcuri, who had been the Oneida County district attorney for 14 years. Arcuri didn’t establish an immediate connection with his constituents, and even in the good Democratic year of 2008 he nearly lost to his GOP opponent, businessman Richard Hanna.
In 2008, Hanna is back for a rematch in a very different environment. Arcuri has been attempting to distance himself from national Democrats by voting against the second version of the health care bill, but it may be too late. Arcuri is most likely in for a very tough race this cycle.