----------PAST KEY RACES----------
|Poll||Date||Sample||Altschuler (R)||Bishop (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||49.8||50.2||Bishop +0.4|
|Siena||10/6 - 10/11||615 LV||39||51||Bishop +12|
|FDL/Survey USA||1/16 - 1/18||600 LV||45||47||Bishop +2|
|2008: Bishop (D) 58%, Zeldin (R) 42%||2008: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 48%
|2006: Bishop (D) 62%, Zanzi (R) 38%||2004: Bush (R) 49.4%, Kerry (D) 48.7%
|2004: Bishop (D) 56%, Manger (R) 4%||2000: Gore (D) 53%, Bush (R) 43%|
10/28/10 -- Siena shows a wider Bishop lead than earlier polls have suggested, but Siena is also suggesting tightening in other New York races. We'll have to see if they drop in here again.
New York’s 1st Congressional District covers roughly the eastern half of Long Island. Easthampton and (to a lesser extent) Bridgehampton are Democratic strongholds. As one moves westward, through Southampton, Brookhaven and Smithtown, the district becomes more Republican. Overall the district has a modestly Republican tilt to it and it seems to have moved somewhat toward the Republicans recently; in February, the GOP narrowly picked up an open Assembly district that had gone handily for Obama in 2008.
Tim Bishop has represented the 1st since he defeated Felix Grucci in the good Republican year of 2002. Although Bishop is nominally a member of the conservative Blue Dog Caucus, he is a fairly reliable liberal, having earned a 100 percent rating from ADA in 2009; his major break with liberalism comes from his support for free trade agreements. He made noises about opposing the health care law, but ultimately supported it.
Bishop’s GOP opponent is businessman Randy Altschuler, who defeated a number of other GOPers in the September 14 primary. Altschuler loaned $1.5 million to his campaign and raised an additional million from individuals, leaving him with more cash on hand than Bishop at the end of the second quarter. SurveyUSA, polling for the liberal FireDogLake in January, showed Bishop leading Alschuler by a slim 47-45 margin. This is likely to be a competitive race.