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New York 1st District - Altschuler vs. Bishop

Candidates

Randy Altschuler

Randy Altschuler (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Tim Bishop

Tim Bishop (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

New York Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Gov | Sen (Special) | Sen | NY-2 | NY-4 | NY-13 | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-22 | NY-23 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-27 | NY-29

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
Pres | NY-13 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2006: Governor | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleAltschuler (R)Bishop (D)Spread
Final Results----49.850.2Bishop +0.4
Siena10/6 - 10/11615 LV3951Bishop +12
FDL/Survey USA1/16 - 1/18600 LV4547Bishop +2
NY1

Previous Election Results

  2008: Bishop (D) 58%, Zeldin (R) 42%   2008: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 48%
  2006: Bishop (D) 62%, Zanzi (R) 38%   2004: Bush (R) 49.4%, Kerry (D) 48.7%
  2004: Bishop (D) 56%, Manger (R) 4%   2000: Gore (D) 53%, Bush (R) 43%

Race Analysis

10/28/10 -- Siena shows a wider Bishop lead than earlier polls have suggested, but Siena is also suggesting tightening in other New York races.  We'll have to see if they drop in here again.

----------Race Preview---------

New York’s 1st Congressional District covers roughly the eastern half of Long Island. Easthampton and (to a lesser extent) Bridgehampton are Democratic strongholds. As one moves westward, through Southampton, Brookhaven and Smithtown, the district becomes more Republican. Overall the district has a modestly Republican tilt to it and it seems to have moved somewhat toward the Republicans recently; in February, the GOP narrowly picked up an open Assembly district that had gone handily for Obama in 2008.

Tim Bishop has represented the 1st since he defeated Felix Grucci in the good Republican year of 2002. Although Bishop is nominally a member of the conservative Blue Dog Caucus, he is a fairly reliable liberal, having earned a 100 percent rating from ADA in 2009; his major break with liberalism comes from his support for free trade agreements. He made noises about opposing the health care law, but ultimately supported it.

Bishop’s GOP opponent is businessman Randy Altschuler, who defeated a number of other GOPers in the September 14 primary. Altschuler loaned $1.5 million to his campaign and raised an additional million from individuals, leaving him with more cash on hand than Bishop at the end of the second quarter.  SurveyUSA, polling for the liberal FireDogLake in January, showed Bishop leading Alschuler by a slim 47-45 margin. This is likely to be a competitive race.