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New York 19th District - Hayworth vs. Hall

Candidates

John Hall

John Hall (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Nan Hayworth

Nan Hayworth (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

New York Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Gov | Sen (Special) | Sen | NY-1 | NY-2 | NY-4 | NY-13 | NY-20 | NY-22 | NY-23 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-27 | NY-29

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
Pres | NY-13 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2006: Governor | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHall (D)Hayworth (R)Spread
Final Results----47.352.7Hayworth +5.4
Siena10/23 - 10/26651 LV4746Hall +1
Monmouth10/15 - 10/18636 LV4948Hall +1
The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)10/12 - 10/14416 LV4343Tie
Siena10/5 - 10/10610 LV4346Hayworth +3
RNN-TV/Iona College10/6 - 10/6800 RV4242Tie
Daily Kos/PPP (D)9/11 - 9/12LV4244Hayworth +2
NY19

Previous Election Results

  2008: Hall (D) 59%, Lalor (R) 41%   2008: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 48%
  2006: Hall (D) 51%, Kelly (R) 49%   2004: Bush (R) 53%, Kerry (D) 45%
  2004: Kelly (R) 67%, Selendy (D) 33%   2000: Bush (R) 49%, Gore (D) 47%

Race Analysis

10/28/10 -- The polling here has been incredibly tight, with neither candidate having a particular edge.  Hall is inching toward 50 percent, but Hayworth is right along beside him.  The million dollar question is whether Paladino's flailing gubernatorial campaign drags downticket Republicans along with him.

----------Race Preview---------

North of Westchester County, New York grows less urban and more Republican. Here, in FDR’s old stomping grounds, we find one of the fastest growing districts in New York. The 19th is marginal territory, giving John McCain 48 percent of the vote and George W. Bush 54 percent.

Though the district is swing territory, it is represented by a liberal congressman. John Hall, frontman for the 70’s rock group Orleans (Top 5 hit: “Still The One”) was one of the surprise winners in 2006, defeating moderate GOP Representative Sue Kelly by a few points. Hall has been a reliably liberal vote, voting for almost all of the leadership’s initiatives.

A slew of Republicans have lined up to face Hall and one, opthamologist Nan Hayworth, has outraised the congressman (in part due to a $500,000 loan to her campaign). In February, Republicans picked up a state Assembly district located partially within the district that gave Barack Obama two-thirds of the vote. This could indicate the area is moving toward the Republicans somewhat.