----------PAST KEY RACES----------
|Poll||Date||Sample||Hall (D)||Hayworth (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||47.3||52.7||Hayworth +5.4|
|Siena||10/23 - 10/26||651 LV||47||46||Hall +1|
|Monmouth||10/15 - 10/18||636 LV||49||48||Hall +1|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||10/12 - 10/14||416 LV||43||43||Tie|
|Siena||10/5 - 10/10||610 LV||43||46||Hayworth +3|
|RNN-TV/Iona College||10/6 - 10/6||800 RV||42||42||Tie|
|Daily Kos/PPP (D)||9/11 - 9/12||LV||42||44||Hayworth +2|
|2008: Hall (D) 59%, Lalor (R) 41%||2008: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 48%
|2006: Hall (D) 51%, Kelly (R) 49%||2004: Bush (R) 53%, Kerry (D) 45%
|2004: Kelly (R) 67%, Selendy (D) 33%||2000: Bush (R) 49%, Gore (D) 47%|
10/28/10 -- The polling here has been incredibly tight, with neither candidate having a particular edge. Hall is inching toward 50 percent, but Hayworth is right along beside him. The million dollar question is whether Paladino's flailing gubernatorial campaign drags downticket Republicans along with him.
North of Westchester County, New York grows less urban and more Republican. Here, in FDR’s old stomping grounds, we find one of the fastest growing districts in New York. The 19th is marginal territory, giving John McCain 48 percent of the vote and George W. Bush 54 percent.
Though the district is swing territory, it is represented by a liberal congressman. John Hall, frontman for the 70’s rock group Orleans (Top 5 hit: “Still The One”) was one of the surprise winners in 2006, defeating moderate GOP Representative Sue Kelly by a few points. Hall has been a reliably liberal vote, voting for almost all of the leadership’s initiatives.
A slew of Republicans have lined up to face Hall and one, opthamologist Nan Hayworth, has outraised the congressman (in part due to a $500,000 loan to her campaign). In February, Republicans picked up a state Assembly district located partially within the district that gave Barack Obama two-thirds of the vote. This could indicate the area is moving toward the Republicans somewhat.