----------PAST KEY RACES----------
|Poll||Date||Sample||Grimm (R)||McMahon (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||51.3||48.0||Grimm +3.3|
|2008: McMahon (D) 61%, Straniere (R) 33%||2008: McCain (R) 51%, Obama (D) 49%
|2006: Fossella (R) 57%, Harrison (D) 43%||2004: Bush (R) 55%, Kerry (D) 45%
|2004: Fossella (R) 59%, Barbaro (D) 41%||2000: Gore (D) 53%, Bush (R) 44%|
10/28/10 -- There's been no polling in this race, so we really can only guess where thing stand. We have it as a tossup for that reason.
New York’s 13th Congressional District is based in Staten Island, which casts about two-thirds of the district’s vote. Staten Island is the most reliably Republican borough in New York. Although there are Democratic strongholds along the North Shore of the island, even in the bad GOP year of 2008, John McCain managed to carry the borough 52-48. The remainder of the district is part of the Democratic gerrymander of southwest Brooklyn (SW Brooklyn could produce a reasonably compact district that would have given John McCain about 60 percent of the vote). Most of Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights and Gravesend are in the 13th’s boundaries, and gave Obama a modest 52-47 edge.
Michael McMahon captured the district after the Staten Island Republican Party suffered a series of setbacks in 2008. Rep. Vito Fossella was embroiled in a DUI/adultery scandal, and the GOP nominated a weak candidate to replace him. McMahon won with nearly two-thirds of the vote. McMahon’s voting record is fairly conservative for a Northern Democrat, and he voted against the health care bill both times it came up. He also had to weather a controversy after a staffer complained of the “Jewish money” raised by one of his potential GOP opponents.
Mike Grimm emerged from a bruising GOP primary, and should be able to give McMahon a run for his money. Unlike the 23rd District, the Conservative Party’s nominee also won the Republican nomination here. McMahon should have a competitive race on his hands.