|Poll||Date||Sample||Heck (R)||Titus (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||48.1||47.5||Heck +0.6|
|LVRJ/Mason-Dixon||10/25 - 10/27||400 LV||53||43||Heck +10|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||9/25 - 9/27||403 LV||47||44||Heck +3|
|LVRJ/Mason-Dixon||9/7 - 9/9||400 LV||43||47||Titus +4|
|AAF/Ayers (R)||8/23 - 8/24||400 LV||48||45||Heck +3|
|LVRJ/Mason-Dixon||8/9 - 8/11||400 LV||42||43||Titus +1|
|LVRJ/Mason-Dixon||7/12 - 7/14||400 LV||40||42||Titus +2|
|LVRJ/Mason-Dixon||4/5 - 4/7||300 RV||49||44||Heck +5|
|LVRJ/Mason-Dixon||11/30 - 12/2||300 RV||40||40||Tie|
|2008: Titus (D) 47%, Porter (R) 42%||2008: Obama (D) 55%, McCain (R) 43%|
|2006: Porter (R) 49%, Hafen (D) 47%||2004: Bush (R) 50%, Kerry (D) 49%|
|2004: Porter (R) 55%, Gallagher (D) 40%||2000: Bush (R) 48%, Gore (D) 48%|
10/30/10 -- The latest Mason-Dixon poll shows Heck jumping out to a double-digit lead. This is starting to lean his way.
10/27/10 -- The polls are a little bit all over the place here. All the polls agree that Heck and Titus are neck-in-neck here; this race could go either way.
10/6/10 -- The polling to date shows Heck with the slightest of leads over Titus, but her numbers have been inching up toward the 50 percent mark. Heck's numbers have improved as well, so I wouldn't write him off either. It looks like this one will be going down to the wire.
During the 1990s, Nevada was the country's fastest-growing state. Most of this population settled in the sprawling Las Vegas suburbs, which boomed in size and value. This necessitated the creation of a new district in the area. The legislature was split between the parties, and so it compromised on a "fair fight" district. In the good Republican year of 2002, it elected a Republican, Jon Porter.
Porter hung on by narrowing margins throughout the 2000s, as the district, like many suburban districts, trended leftward. Las Vegas was hit hard by the collapse of the housing market, with homes losing more than half their value. This was too much for Porter, and he lost in 2008 to Dina Titus.
Titus now must face re-election as the incumbent candidate of the governing party, in a very different environment. Things haven't improved much in Las Vegas, and immigration to the area has slowed. But the district still has a Democratic lean to it, so Republicans would be foolish to count this as a sure pickup.