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Nevada 3rd District - Heck vs. Titus


Joe Heck

Joe Heck (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Dina Titus

Dina Titus (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Nevada Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | Senate

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | NV-3
2006: Governor | NV-2 | NV-3
2004: President | Senate | NV-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHeck (R)Titus (D)Spread
Final Results----48.147.5Heck +0.6
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon10/25 - 10/27400 LV5343Heck +10
The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)9/25 - 9/27403 LV4744Heck +3
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon9/7 - 9/9400 LV4347Titus +4
AAF/Ayers (R)8/23 - 8/24400 LV4845Heck +3
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon8/9 - 8/11400 LV4243Titus +1
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon7/12 - 7/14400 LV4042Titus +2
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon4/5 - 4/7300 RV4944Heck +5
LVRJ/Mason-Dixon11/30 - 12/2300 RV4040Tie

Previous Election Results

  2008: Titus (D) 47%, Porter (R) 42%   2008: Obama (D) 55%, McCain (R) 43%
  2006: Porter (R) 49%, Hafen (D) 47%   2004: Bush (R) 50%, Kerry (D) 49%
  2004: Porter (R) 55%, Gallagher (D) 40%   2000: Bush (R) 48%, Gore (D) 48%

Race Analysis

10/30/10 -- The latest Mason-Dixon poll shows Heck jumping out to a double-digit lead.  This is starting to lean his way.

10/27/10 -- The polls are a little bit all over the place here.  All the polls agree that Heck and Titus are neck-in-neck here; this race could go either way.

10/6/10 -- The polling to date shows Heck with the slightest of leads over Titus, but her numbers have been inching up toward the 50 percent mark.  Heck's numbers have improved as well, so I wouldn't write him off either.  It looks like this one will be going down to the wire.

----------Race Preview---------

During the 1990s, Nevada was the country's fastest-growing state.  Most of this population settled in the sprawling Las Vegas suburbs, which boomed in size and value.  This necessitated the creation of a new district in the area.  The legislature was split between the parties, and so it compromised on a "fair fight" district.  In the good Republican year of 2002, it elected a Republican, Jon Porter.

Porter hung on by narrowing margins throughout the 2000s, as the district, like many suburban districts, trended leftward.  Las Vegas was hit hard by the collapse of the housing market, with homes losing more than half their value.  This was too much for Porter, and he lost in 2008 to Dina Titus.

Titus now must face re-election as the incumbent candidate of the governing party, in a very different environment.  Things haven't improved much in Las Vegas, and immigration to the area has slowed.  But the district still has a Democratic lean to it, so Republicans would be foolish to count this as a sure pickup.