|Poll||Date||Sample||Pearce (R)||Teague (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||55.4||44.6||Pearce +10.8|
|Albuquerque Journal||10/27 - 10/28||402 LV||48||45||Pearce +3|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||9/28 - 9/30||401 LV||46||42||Pearce +4|
|Albuquerque Journal||9/27 - 9/30||402 LV||45||44||Pearce +1|
|Daily Kos/PPP (D)||9/25 - 9/26||540 LV||48||47||Pearce +1|
|Albuquerque Journal||8/23 - 8/27||404 LV||42||45||Teague +3|
|PPP (D)||2/18 - 2/20||400 LV||43||41||Pearce +2|
|2008: Teague (D) 56%, Tinsley (R) 44%||2008: McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 49%|
|2006: Pearce (R) 59%, Kissling (D) 41%||2004: Bush (R) 58%, Kerry (D) 41%|
|2004: Pearce (R) 60%, King (D) 40%||2000: Bush (R) 54%, Gore (D) 43%|
10/28/10 -- Teague has slipped below Pearce, but not by much. Pearce will probably claim victory here, but Teague is still very much in this game.
10/6/10 -- The polls continue to show a tight race in the 2nd District. Teague is swimming against the tide here, but you'd also expect a former incumbent like Pearce to be performing better in this environment.
10/4/2010 -- In 2008, Harry Teague became the first Democrat to win this R+6 district in over 30 years, with a resounding 56-44 percent triumph over his Republican opponent. But when former Congressman Steve Pearce announced his candidacy this year, the seat bounced right back into the tossup category.
The polls so far show a tight race, with the candidates separated by only a few points. The temptation is to point out that Teague is an incumbent under 50 percent, but Pearce is a former congressman, so the usual "incumbent rule" may not apply.
The 2nd Congressional district is southern New Mexico. It's is a mixture of empty ranching country, and small towns and cities. The eastern area of the district is really just an extension of Texas -- Precint 3 in Otero County went for John McCain by a margin of 29 to 0 -- 100 percent of the vote. Toward the west the district becomes more heavily Hispanic, and the Democratic vote share increases. Overall it is a Republican-leaning district.
The district elected Republican Joe Skeen in 1980, one of the few Congressmen ever to win a write-in election. Skeen retired in 2002, and Republican Steve Pearce won with 56 percent of the vote.
But when Pearce ran for Senate in 2008, it was a very different environment. Democrat Harry Teague won the district handily. But Teague has voted for much of the national Democratic agenda in Washington, which may not sit well with the district's conservative electorate.