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New Mexico 1st District - Barela vs. Heinrich

Candidates

Jon Barela

Jon Barela (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Martin Heinrich

Martin Heinrich (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

New Mexico Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | NM-2 | NM-3

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Senate | NM-1 | NM-2
2006: Governor | NM-1
2004: President | NM-1 | NM-2 | NM-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBarela (R)Heinrich (D)Spread
Final Results----48.251.8Heinrich +3.6
Albuquerque Journal10/27 - 10/28400 LV4946Barela +3
Albuquerque Journal9/27 - 9/30403 LV4148Heinrich +7
Daily Kos/PPP (D)9/25 - 9/26540 LV4350Heinrich +7
AAF/Ayers (R)8/23 - 8/29400 LV4249Heinrich +7
Albuquerque Journal8/23 - 8/27402 LV4147Heinrich +6
SurveyUSA7/22 - 7/25559 LV5145Barela +6
PPP (D)2/18 - 2/20400 LV3645Heinrich +9
NM1

Previous Election Results

  2008: Heinrich (D) 56%, White (R) 44%   2008: Obama (D) 60%, McCain (R) 39%
  2006: Wilson (R) 50.2%, Madrid (R) 49.8%   2004: Kerry (D) 51%, Bush (R) 48%
  2004: Wilson (R) 54%, Romero (D) 46%   2000: Gore (D) 48%, Bush (R) 47%

Race Analysis

10/4/2010 -- When Democrats picked up this D+5 district in 2008, most observers assumed that it was theirs for good.  But two years later, freshman Martin Heinrich finds himself in a surprisingly tough race.  He faces off against Jon Barela, the former Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce President.  The earliest polls showed a very tight race, but recently Heinrich has started to put some distance between himself and Barela.  He's still an incumbent under 50 percent, so he has reason to worry, despite his lead and the partisan tilt of the district.