|Poll||Date||Sample||Miller (R)||Shuler (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||45.7||54.3||Shuler +8.6|
|SurveyUSA||7/22 - 7/25||400 RV||44||45||Shuler +1|
|2008: Shuler (D) 62%, Mumpower (R) 36%||2008: McCain (R) 52%, Obama (D) 47%|
|2006: Shuler (D) 54%, Taylor (R) 46%||2004: Bush (R) 57%, Kerry (D) 43%|
|2004: Taylor (R) 55%, Keever (D) 45%||2000: Bush (R) 58%, Gore (D) 41%|
10/28/10 -- Polls now show a very close race, and Shuler is declaring that he'll run for Speaker against Nancy Pelosi. That doesn't happen unless you're really worried that you won't be back for the next Congress.
North Carolina’s 11th District is one of the few regularly-shaped districts in this grossly gerrymandered state. It begins in the far southwest corner of the state, and then works its way across western North Carolina to Asheville. The district is not a bastion of mountain Republicanism – these voters are confined to the neighboring 10th District. From 1976 through 1990 it switched between the parties six times. Today it has a slight Republican tilt to it, having given 57 percent of the vote to Bush and 52 percent to McCain.
Heath Shuler, a standout college quarterback at the University of Tennessee, defeated ethically-challenged Congressman Charles Taylor in the 2006 elections with a surprisingly large 54 percent of the vote. Shuler won a solid re-election in 2008 with 62 percent of the vote. Shuler had previously been recruited by Republicans to run in the neighboring 1st District of Tennessee, so unsurprisingly he has a conservative voting record for a Democrat. His 65 percent rating from ADA places him among the most conservative Democrats in the House. He broke from the Obama administration on the stimulus, TARP and the health care bill. Shuler’s one major vote for an administration initiative came with his vote for cap-and-trade, which his opponent, businessman Jeff Miller, will eagerly attempt to portray as a vote for a major tax increase. Shuler may well find himself in a very competitive race this fall.