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Missouri 4th District - Hartzler vs. Skelton


Vicky Hartzler

Vicky Hartzler (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Ike Skelton

Ike Skelton (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Missouri Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Senate | MO-3 | MO-5

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | Gov | MO-6 | MO-9
2006: Senate
2004: President | Sen | Gov | MO-5 | MO-6

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHartzler (R)Skelton (D)Spread
Final Results----50.445.1Hartzler +5.3
KSN3/Missouri State Univ.10/20 - 10/27159 LV3946Skelton +7
KY3/Missouri State Univ.8/6 - 8/22187 RV3547Skelton +12
WeAskAmerica8/17 - 8/171207 RV4245Skelton +3

Previous Election Results

  2008: Skelton (D) 66%, Parnell (R) 34%   2008: McCain (R) 61%, Obama (D) 38%
  2006: Skelton (D) 68%, Noland (R) 29%   2004: Bush (R) 64%, Kerry (D) 35%
  2004: Skelton (D) 66%, Noland (D) 32%   2000: Bush (R) 58%, Gore (D) 39%

Race Analysis

10/27/10 --The polling suggests a tight race, with Skelton still ahead.  Should be an exciting night here next Tuesday.

----------Race Preview---------

When Ike Skelton entered politics 55 years ago, Missouri’s politics were dominated by Democrats like himself. These Democrats came from the state’s mostly-rural districts (11 at the time) and were social conservatives, economic populists and foreign policy hawks. They were, in short, Harry Truman Democrats.

Today, Skelton is the last of this breed. Only three of the state’s districts are rural, and two of them are represented by Republicans. If Skelton’s central-west Missouri district survives elimination in 2012 – Missouri is on the brink of losing a seat – his district will almost certainly go Republican when he dies or retires; it gave George W. Bush 64 percent of the vote and gave John McCain 60 percent of the vote.

Skelton’s district may go Republican sooner than that. The seventeen-term septuagenarian supported several early Obama administration initiatives that are likely unpopular in his district, including TARP extension, the stimulus package and the cap-and-trade bill. He later broke from his party on the health care package, but not before he drew a high-quality opponent in former State Rep Vicky Hartzler, who should be able to give Skelton a run for his money. We’ll see if Skelton’s fighting chops are still up to snuff.