|Poll||Date||Sample||Carnahan (D)||Martin (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||48.9||46.7||Carnahan +2.2|
|AAF/Ayers (R)||8/16 - 8/20||400 LV||54||38||Carnahan +16|
|WeAskAmerica||8/17 - 8/17||1089 RV||48||39||Carnahan +9|
|2008: Carnahan (D) 66%, Sander (R) 30%||2008: Obama (D) 60%, McCain (R) 39%
|2006: Carnahan (D) 66%, Bertelsen (R) 32%||2004: Kerry (D) 57%, Bush (R) 43%
|2004: Carnahan (D) 53%, Federer (R) 45%||2000: Gore (D) 54%, Bush (R) 43%|
10/29/10 -- This race is closer than the recent polling suggests, and both parties will be fully engaged with their get-out-the-vote operations. Still, there have been suggestions that Carnahan would be in trouble for a long time here, so he's seen this coming.
Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District starts on the south side of St. Louis, just beyond the African American precincts that have carefully been placed in the majority-minority 1st District. It extends southward through suburban Jefferson County and into exurban Ste. Genevieve County. The district hasn’t elected a Republican since the 1950 midterms, when it was confined almost entirely to St. Louis City.
Minority Leader Richard Gephardt retired in 2004, and the district elected Russ Carnahan, scion of one of the most successful Democratic families in Missouri. Carnahan had trouble with his initial election, but has won re-election since with over 60 percent of the vote. His voting record tilts leftward, but is generally middle-of-the-pack for the Democratic caucus.
Normally we would not give the Republican much of a chance in this D+7 district, but the Republican candidate, Ed Martin, the former Chief of Staff to Gov. Matt Blunt, has about as much cash-on-hand as the incumbent. If the wave gets big enough for the Republicans, this seat could wind up in play.