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Michigan 7th District - Walberg vs. Schauer


Mark Schauer

Mark Schauer (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Tim Walberg

Tim Walberg (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Michigan Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | MI-1 | MI-9 | MI-15

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | MI-7 | MI-9
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleSchauer (D)Walberg (R)Spread
Final Results----45.450.2Walberg +4.8
EPIC-MRA10/16 - 10/17400 LV4539Schauer +6
The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)9/25 - 9/27404 LV4141Tie
Rossman Group (D)9/20 - 9/20300 LV3842Walberg +4
AAF/Ayers (R)8/16 - 8/18400 LV4050Walberg +10
WeAskAmerica8/4 - 8/41008 RV3745Walberg +8

Previous Election Results

  2008: Schauer (D) 49%, Walberg (R) 47%   2008: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 46%
  2006: Walberg (R) 50%, Renier (R) 46%   2004: Bush (R) 54%, Kerry (D) 45%
  2004: Schwarz (R) 58%, Renier (D) 36%   2000: Bush (R) 53%, Gore (D) 47%

Race Analysis

10/27/10 -- The latest poll shows Schauer in the lead, though still below 50 percent.  There's still plenty of undecideds for either member to win this one.

10/6/10 --This race is a bit different from other races involving incumbents at 39 percent because Walberg is a former incumbent.  Regardless, it is still an awfully ugly number for Congressman Schauer, and given the national mood and the swing nature of the district, it looks like he has a pretty high hill to climb to get back to Washington.

----------Race Preview---------

The 7th District is a collection of districts in south central Michigan stretching from the Indiana border to the outer reaches of the state capitol in Lansing. The largest metro area is Battle Creek, and nearly half of the district’s population is categorized by the census as “rural.” Despite the district’s historic Republican tilt, today it is competitive political territory, giving Barack Obama 52 percent of the vote in 2008 and George Bush 54 percent of the vote in 2004, roughly at their national averages.

Nick Smith held the district without much competition from 1992 through 2004. He retired that year, and the district elected Joe Schwarz, a decidedly moderate Republican who had lost the 1992 primary to Smith. Schwarz was upset in the 2006 primary by Tim Walberg, a former minister and a much more conservative Republican, who barely squeaked past an underfunded Democrat. In 2008, Walberg was defeated by Mark Schauer.

Schauer’s voting record is fairly liberal; he earned a 100 percent rating from Americans for Democratic Action in 2009. His saving grace might be facing off once again against Walberg. This will be a hard-fought race between two candidates whose positions are probably both a touch out-of-step with the median voter in the district.