|Poll||Date||Sample||Harris (R)||Kratovil (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||54.2||42.0||Harris +12.2|
|Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks||10/15 - 10/20||520 LV||40||40||Tie|
|Monmouth||10/16 - 10/19||637 LV||53||42||Harris +11|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||9/28 - 9/30||400 LV||43||40||Harris +3|
|POS (R)||4/25 - 4/26||400 LV||39||36||Harris +3|
|2008: Kratovil (D) 49%, Harris (R) 48%||2008: McCain (R) 58%, Obama (D) 40%|
|2006: Gilchrest (R) 69%, Corwin (D) 31%||2004: Bush (R) 62%, Kerry (D) 36%|
|2004: Gilchrest (R) 76%, Alexakis (D) 24%||2000: Bush (R) 57%, Gore (D) 40%|
10/27/10 -- Kratovil continues to poll in the low 40s. He's the underdog at this point.
10/6/10 --The two independent polls we have in this race (one taken in April, one taken in September) show roughly the same thing: Kratovil is at 40 percent, and Harris is up by three. Incumbents below 50 percent rarely win, so Kratovil looks to be in a great deal of trouble.
Maryland's First Congressional District is the Eastern Shore of Maryland on the Delmarva peninsula, as well as parts of the mainland around Annapolis. This area is historically Democratic, but its Democrats were akin to the Southern branch of the Party, rather than the Northern branch. As with the rest of the South, during the 1970s and 80s the area began re-aligning toward the Republicans.
With redistricting in 2002, this district became solidly Republican -- in fact, it became too Republican to support its moderate GOP Congressman, Wayne Gilchrist. Gilchrist was defeated by the Club For Growth-backed Andy Harris in 2008. Harris went on to lose a close election against Democrat Frank Kratovil in the general election.
This year, Harris is back for a rematch. Kratovil has compiled a mostly conservative voting record in Washington, but it may not matter in a year like 2008 is shaping up to be.