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Maryland 1st District - Harris vs. Kratovil

Candidates

Andy Harris

Andy Harris (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Frank Kratovil

Frank Kratovil (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Maryland Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | Senate

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHarris (R)Kratovil (D)Spread
Final Results----54.242.0Harris +12.2
Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks10/15 - 10/20520 LV4040Tie
Monmouth10/16 - 10/19637 LV5342Harris +11
The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)9/28 - 9/30400 LV4340Harris +3
POS (R)4/25 - 4/26400 LV3936Harris +3
MD1

Previous Election Results

  2008: Kratovil (D) 49%, Harris (R) 48%   2008: McCain (R) 58%, Obama (D) 40%
  2006: Gilchrest (R) 69%, Corwin (D) 31%   2004: Bush (R) 62%, Kerry (D) 36%
  2004: Gilchrest (R) 76%, Alexakis (D) 24%   2000: Bush (R) 57%, Gore (D) 40%

Race Analysis

10/27/10 -- Kratovil continues to poll in the low 40s.  He's the underdog at this point.

10/6/10 --The two independent polls we have in this race (one taken in April, one taken in September) show roughly the same thing: Kratovil is at 40 percent, and Harris is up by three. Incumbents below 50 percent rarely win, so Kratovil looks to be in a great deal of trouble.

----------Race Preview---------

Maryland's First Congressional District is the Eastern Shore of Maryland on the Delmarva peninsula, as well as parts of the mainland around Annapolis.  This area is historically Democratic, but its Democrats were akin to the Southern branch of the Party, rather than the Northern branch.  As with the rest of the South, during the 1970s and 80s the area began re-aligning toward the Republicans.

With redistricting in 2002, this district became solidly Republican -- in fact, it became too Republican to support its moderate GOP Congressman, Wayne Gilchrist.  Gilchrist was defeated by the Club For Growth-backed Andy Harris in 2008.  Harris went on to lose a close election against Democrat Frank Kratovil in the general election.

This year, Harris is back for a rematch.  Kratovil has compiled a mostly conservative voting record in Washington, but it may not matter in a year like 2008 is shaping up to be.