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Kentucky 6th District - Barr vs. Chandler


Andy Barr

Andy Barr (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Ben Chandler

Ben Chandler (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Kentucky Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 State Races: Senate | KY-3

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | Senate | KY-3
2006: KY-3 | KY-4
2004: President | Senate | KY-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBarr (R)Chandler (D)Spread
Final Results----49.950.1Chandler +0.2
Mason-Dixon10/15 - 10/19500 LV4448Chandler +4
CN|2/Braun Research9/21 - 9/22508 LV3751Chandler +14
CN|2/Braun Research7/26 - 7/27503 LV3246Chandler +14

Previous Election Results

  2008: Chandler (D) 65%, Larson (R) 35%   2008: McCain (R) 55%, Obama (D) 43%
  2006: Chandler (D) 86%, Ard (L) 14%   2004: Bush (R) 58%, Kerry (D) 41%
  2004: Chandler (D) 59%, Buford (R) 40%   2000: Bush (R) 56%, Gore (D) 42%

Race Analysis

10/27/10 --Much like Kentucky's Third District, the polling in the Sixth is all over the place.  The DCCC is spending $130K here on Chandler's behalf, which leads us to believe that Mason-Dixon probably has the better view of the race.

----------Race Preview---------

The 6th Congressional District covers horse country, bourbon whisky country and the second-largest metropolitan area in the state. It's Republican territory, and it gave George W. Bush 58 percent of the vote in 2004 and John McCain 55 percent in 2008.

But the congressman from the 6th is a Democrat, Ben Chandler. Chandler is the grandson of a senator and governor of Kentucky. After losing a governor’s race in 2003 to Congressman Ernie Fletcher, Chandler decided to run for Fletcher’s old seat. He won handily in 2004, and has won with three-fifths of the vote ever since.

But this year, Chandler is facing strong opposition from attorney Andy Barr. Barr has raised almost a million dollars – keeping pace with the congressman – and the NRCC has purchased ad time in the district. Chandler is coming under fire for his vote for the stimulus, and a statement – being repeated ad nauseum in ads – that it is “hard to say no to” Nancy Pelosi. Chandler has been polling better of late, but in a big enough wave, things could quickly go south for him.