|Poll||Date||Sample||Lally (R)||Yarmuth (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||44.0||54.7||Yarmuth +10.7|
|SurveyUSA||10/21 - 10/25||588 LV||46||50||Yarmuth +4|
|CN|2/Braun Research||10/18 - 10/19||504 LV||31||58||Yarmuth +27|
|CN|2/Braun Research||9/20 - 9/21||500 LV||30||53||Yarmuth +23|
|SurveyUSA||8/27 - 8/30||541 LV||45||47||Yarmuth +2|
|CN|2/Braun Research||8/9 - 8/10||502 LV||29||52||Yarmuth +23|
|2008: Yarmuth (D) 59%, Northup (R) 41%||2008: Obama (D) 56%, McCain (R) 43%
|2006: Yarmuth (D) 51%, Northup (R) 48%||2004: Kerry (D) 51%, Bush (R) 49%|
|2004: Northup (R) 60%, Miller (D) 38%||2000: Gore (D) 50%, Bush (R) 48%|
10/27/10 --Talk about your wildly diverging polls! Yarmuth is either up 4 points or 27 points, depending on whether you believe SurveyUSA or CN|2 Braun. Either way, Yarmuth is up, but if SurveyUSA has the better view of the electorate, this could be bad news for the Democrats.
For years after the Civil War, Kentucky was, like most border states, a Democratic state with pockets of Republican voting. One such pocket was Louisville, a town settled by Germans which retained some Republican voting habits throughout most of the 19th and 20th centuries. During the 1990s and 2000s, it shifted toward the Democrats, though it is still only a modestly Democratic district – about two points more Democratic than the country as a whole.
In 2006 it turned out its longtime congressman, Representative Anne Northup. In her place it elected John Yarmuth, who published an alternative newspaper in Louisville. Yarmuth has compiled a strongly liberal voting record in Congress, voting for almost every item on the Democratic agenda.
This may prove to be too much in this moderately Democratic district. Some polls have shown Yarmuth vulnerable against his unknown GOP opponent, pilot Todd Lally. Lally has raised a reasonable amount of money in this inexpensive, compact market, but it will take a strong GOP year to dislodge Yarmuth.