|Poll||Date||Sample||Moore (D)||Yoder (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||38.7||58.4||Yoder +19.7|
|2008: Moore (D) 56%, Jordan (R) 40%||2008: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 48%|
|2006: Moore (D) 65%, Ahner (R) 34%||2004: Bush (R) 55%, Kerry (D) 44%|
|2004: Moore (D) 55%, Kobach (R) 43%||2000: Bush (R) 43%, Gore (D) 42%|
The odd thing about Kansas City is that it is mostly in Missouri. Kansas City, Kansas, is a relatively small city; the real population center is in the suburbs of Johnson County. This is the area that Thomas Frank depicted in “What’s The Matter With Kansas.” Oddly enough, given the premise of the book, it has elected a center-left Democratic congressman since 1998, when the GOP nominated a Republican from the socially conservative faction of the party. Dennis Moore managed to hold on in the face of stiff challenges for a decade, even as the district became more Democratic. Barack Obama carried it in 2008.
Moore retired this year, and his wife, Stephene, is making a run for the seat. She’ll face off against state Rep. Kevin Yoder. In a different year, this probably would be a tight race, but this is just the wrong year to be running as a Democrat in Kansas, even in a swing district like this one. The internal GOP divisions that have plagued the district seem pretty well smoothed over and Yoder is something of a favorite here.