|Poll||Date||Sample||Hill (D)||Young (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||42.3||52.4||Young +10.1|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||10/16 - 10/19||400 LV||46||44||Hill +2|
|2008: Hill (D) 58%, Sodrel (R) 38%||2008: McCain (R) 50%, Obama (D) 49%|
|2006: Hill (D) 50%, Sodrel (R) 46%||2004: Bush (R) 59%, Kerry (D) 40%|
|2004: Sodrel (R) 50%, Hill (D) 49%||2000: Bush (R) 56%, Gore (D) 42%|
10/27/10 --It is almost criminal that we've made it this far into the election before getting our first independent poll, but it confirms what we already suspected: Hill is in trouble. He leads, but he's well under 50 percent.
Indiana’s 9th Congressional District is roughly the southeastern quadrant of the state. It is a collection of small towns and cities, with historically southern/border state Democratic affinities, but which has swung toward the Republicans in recent decades. George W. Bush won here handily in 2004, but John McCain just barely won the district in 2008.
The congressman from the 9th is Baron Hill, who was elected in 1998 and eked out narrow wins in 2000 and 2002 before losing to his ’02 opponent, Mike Sodrel, in 2004. Hill was back in 2006, and defeated Sodrel, again narrowly.The ’08 re-re-re-rematch was more decisive, as Hill swept to a 58-38 victory.
Sodrel sought a fifth matchup with Hill, but the Republican primary voters demurred, opting instead for attorney Todd Young. Expect this episode from a town hall meeting to receive frequent airtime in the fall. Hill will try to draw attention to his numerous breaks with the national Democratic Party in previous years, though Young will argue that these breaks became less frequent in the recent Congress, and will point to Hill’s votes on the health care bill and cap-and-trade legislation, as well as raising the national debt limit.