|Poll||Date||Sample||Donnelly (D)||Walorski (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||48.2||46.8||Donnelly +1.4|
|WISH-TV/EPIC-MRA||10/20 - 10/22||400 LV||48||43||Donnelly +5|
|WISH-TV/EPIC-MRA||10/1 - 10/3||400 LV||48||39||Donnelly +9|
|AAF/Ayers (R)||8/16 - 8/19||400 LV||46||44||Donnelly +2|
|2008: Donnelly (D) 67%, Puckett (R) 30%||2008: Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 45%
|2006: Donnelly (D) 54%, Chocola (R) 46%||2004: Bush (R) 56%, Kerry (D) 43%|
|2004: Chocola (R) 54%, Donnelly (D) 45%||2000: Bush (R) 54%, Gore (D) 45%|
10/27/10 -- The independent polling here shows Donnelly consistently in the lead, but consistently under 50 percent. He's still the favorite, but this one really could go either way.
Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District is based around the industrial city of South Bend. In the 1990s the district tilted toward the Republicans – George H.W. Bush carried it by five points in 1992. In the 2000 redistricting, Democrats enacted perhaps the nation’s most inconspicuous gerrymander, removing most of heavily Republican Elkhart and Kosciusko Counties and adding some swing counties to the south. The district still includes the city of Elkhart, which has been highlighted repeatedly by the President as part of his efforts to sell the success of the stimulus bill.
It took a couple of cycles, but the district elected a Democrat in 2006. That Democrat, Joe Donnelly, defeated Chris Chocola by a healthy margin. He was re-elected with two-thirds of the vote in 2008, as Barack Obama carried the district by eight points. Donnelly compiled a fairly conservative record for a Democrat, and grabbed headlines last winter when he threatened to derail the Democrats’ health care bill unless it included “Stupak language.” He ultimately settled for an executive order, and voted for the bill.
Donnelly will face off against state Rep. Jackie Walorski in the fall. Walorski has pulled together some decent fundraising and almost kept pace with the Congressman in the second quarter. If she can continue to post good fundraising numbers, the race will likely tighten.