|Poll||Date||Sample||Hare (D)||Schilling (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||43.0||52.6||Schilling +9.6|
|WeAskAmerica||10/31 - 10/31||1103 LV||44||52||Schilling +8|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||10/12 - 10/14||417 LV||38||45||Schilling +7|
|WeAskAmerica||9/8 - 9/8||1250 RV||38||41||Schilling +3|
|2008: Hare (D) Unopposed
||2008: Obama (D) 56%, McCain (R) 42%
|2006: Hare (D) 57%, Zinga (R) 43%||2004: Kerry (D) 51%, Bush (R) 48%|
|2004: Evans (D) 61%, Zinga (D) 39%||2000: Gore (D) 53%, Bush (R) 43%|
10/26/10 -- This is not a race that was on anyone's radar screen at the start of 2010, but it is looking like a massive upset in the making. Schilling is leading Hare, who has been stuck around 40 percent all cycle long. A Schilling win can't even be called an upset at this point.
Illinois’ 17th District defies easy description. The district’s historical base is in Rock Island and West Central Illinois, but the latest iteration includes an ungainly appendage that traces down the Mississippi, runs east, and then sprouts pincers to take in Democratic terrain in Springfield and Decatur. The district leans a few points toward the Democrats, but not overwhelmingly so.
The 17th is represented by Phil Hare, first elected in 2006. In the landslide conditions of that year, he won with a convincing 57 percent of the vote, and was unopposed in 2008. Hare has compiled a reliably liberal voting record, earning him perfect scores from the ACLU, AFSCME, and Americans for Democratic Action.
Hare has received some unfavorable publicity from a videotaped response he gave where he purported not to care about whether the Constitution authorized the health care law, and a We Ask America poll showed him leading his Republican opponent, restaurateur Bobby Schilling, 39-32. Schilling has managed to raise about $300,000 through the second quarter, which goes a long way in this district. If things get bad enough for Democrats, Schilling could be the Fred Heineman of 2010.