|Poll||Date||Sample||Foster (D)||Hultgren (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||45.1||51.3||Hultgren +6.2|
|WeAskAmerica||10/31 - 10/31||784 LV||45||50||Hultgren +5|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||10/9 - 10/12||406 LV||42||43||Hultgren +1|
|WeAskAmerica||8/4 - 8/4||1028 RV||37||44||Hultgren +7|
|2008: Foster (D) 58%, Oberweis (R) 42%||2008: Obama (D) 55%, McCain (R) 44%
|2006: Hastert (R) 60%, Laesch (D) 40%||2004: Bush (R) 55%, Kerry (D) 44%|
|2004: Haster (R) 69%, Zamora (D) 31%||2000: Bush (R) 54%, Gore (D) 42%|
10/26/10 -- Hultgren has continued to lead, and Foster is below 45 percent in the polls. The national mood would have to improve substantially for Democrats to carry this district.
Illinois’s 14th District, the western Chicago exurbs, is one of the fastest growing in the country. In a state that only grew 3 percent in the 2000s, it grew 20.4 percent. This exurban growth is centered around the city of Aurora and in neighboring Kendall County. Although the district takes in rural counties to the west as well as a slice of DuPage County to the East, about two-thirds of the population lives in Kendall and Kane Counties.
In the past 100 years this area has almost always sent Republicans to Congress. It broke tradition in the Watergate year of 1974, and did so again in 2007. In the special election to replace retiring House Speaker Dennis Hastert, Republicans nominated Jim Oberweis, a perennial statewide loser. The winner, Democratic physicist Bill Foster, benefitted from a divided Republican Party (Oberweis’ opponent refused to endorse him) and from Barack Obama’s coattails.
Foster has compiled a fairly conservative voting record among the Democrats. He voted for the stimulus and the health care bill, but opposed the Waxman-Markey version of cap-and-trade legislation. He’ll face off against state Senator Randy Hultgren in the fall, who narrowly led Foster in the one poll taken of the race.