|Poll||Date||Sample||Dold (R)||Seals (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||51.1||48.9||Dold +2.2|
|WeAskAmerica||10/31 - 10/31||861 LV||55||46||Dold +9|
|WeAskAmerica||10/15 - 10/15||1148 LV||50||39||Dold +11|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||10/2 - 10/7||405 LV||37||49||Seals +12|
|WeAskAmerica||8/4 - 8/4||1015 RV||40||43||Seals +3|
|2008: Kirk (R) 53%, Seals (D) 47%||2008: Obama (D) 61%, McCain (R) 38%
|2006: Kirk (R) 53%, Seals (D) 47%||2004: Kerry (D) 52%, Bush (R) 47%
|2004: Kirk (R) 64%, Goodman (D) 36%||2000: Gore (D) 51%, Bush (R) 47%
10/26/10 -- Is Dold up by double digits, or is he down? That's the million dollar question, and we have no good answer. While we'd expect Seals to break 50 percent in a poll at some point, given that he's been on the ballot three times in four year, this still remains a tossup.
Illinois’s 10th District straddles the Cook/Lake county line, with the vote equally divided between the two counties. The district itself is made up of some of Chicago’s toniest suburbs, places like Wilmette, Winnetka, Waukegan, Deerfield, New Trier, Arlington Heights and Libertyville. The median income in the district was a whopping $72,000 in 2000, making it one of the richest districts in the country.
It also has a long Republican heritage. For most of the country’s post-Civil War history, the district elected only a single Democrat to Congress: Abner Mikva, who won a series of excruciatingly close contests in the 1970s before the Carter Administration sent him to the federal bench. But in the 2000s, it swung to the Democrats. It voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama for President, 61-38. It went for John Kerry 53-47 and went for Al Gore by a similar margin. And yet at the same time, it continued electing Congressman Mark Steven Kirk in the face of high-quality opponents.
Kirk is now running for Senate, leaving what is shaping up to be a very competitive race between two able fundraisers. Dan Seals, who lost twice to Kirk, won the Democratic nomination while businessman Bob Dold was the surprise winner in the Republican primary. We Ask America showed Dold trailing Seals by a few points back in March, but that is a mixed bag for Seals, who should have a better showing after having run district-wide twice before. Dold may be a bit conservative for the district, but his overall profile seems to match the socially moderate, fiscally conservative formula that has worked for Republican congressmen in the district in the past. He has picked up the endorsement of popular moderate former Congressman John Edward Porter, which should help to blunt the charges of extremism.