|Poll||Date||Sample||Labrador (R)||Minnick (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||51.0||41.3||Labrador +9.7|
|Mason-Dixon||10/20 - 10/22||400 LV||41||44||Minnick +3|
|Mason-Dixon||9/13 - 9/15||400 LV||36||46||Minnick +10|
|2008: Minnick (D) 51%, Sali (R) 49%||2008: McCain (R) 52%, Obama (D) 36%|
|2006: Sali (R) 50%, Grant (R) 45%||2004: Bush (R) 68%, Kerry (D) 30%|
|2004: Otter (R) 70%, Preston (D) 30%||2000: Bush (R) 68%, Gore (D) 28%|
10/26/10 -- The latest polling suggests that this wave could engulf Minnick. It may just be too much to ask for him to hold on in this heavily Republican district, even as he has voted against almost all of the Democrats' agenda.
On paper, there should be no question that the GOP is going to pick up this district. Idaho’s 1st is probably the most Republican district in America, top-to-bottom, presently represented by a Democrat. The district takes in the western half of the state, stretching from the tip of the panhandle down to the Nevada border. The district’s main population center is Boise and its suburbs. It gave John McCain and George W. Bush over 60 percent of the vote.
Walt Minnick won the district by two points in 2008 largely because he was not Bill Sali, whose aggressive personality proved too much even for the conservative voters of this district. But Minnick has been a crafty representative. He arguably has the most conservative voting record of any Democrat, having opposed almost all of the Obama administration’s initiatives, including the stimulus. This voting record has actually earned him the endorsement of the Tea Party, a rare accolade for a Democrat.
In addition, Minnick benefitted from the implosion of Republican front-runner Vaughn Ward and his upset in the GOP primary by state Rep. Raul Labrador. Labrador boasts that he has been called “one of the most extreme conservatives in the legislature,” and referred to Sali as a “great man.” The Democrats may once again hold onto this seat, in the face of considerable odds.