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Iowa 2nd District - Miller-Meeks vs. Loebsack

Candidates

Dave Loebsack

Dave Loebsack (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Iowa Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | Senate | IA-1 | IA-3

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President
2006: Governor | IA-1 | IA-3
2004: President | Senate | IA-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleLoebsack (D)Miller-Meeks (R)Spread
Final Results----51.046.0Loebsack +5.0
Voter/Consumer Res/AFF (R)8/31 - 9/3300 RV4739Loebsack +8
IA2

Previous Election Results

  2008: Loebsack (D) 57%, Miller-Meeks (R) 39%   2008: Obama (D) 60%, McCain (R) 39%
  2006: Loesback (D) 51%, Leach (R) 49%   2004: Kerry (D) 55%, Bush (R) 44%
  2004: Leach (R) 59%, Franker (D) 39%   2000: Gore (D) 53%, Bush (R) 43%

Race Analysis

10/27/10 -- This is another badly-underpolled district.  The PVI would suggest that no Republican could win here again, but Loebsack doesn't have the profile of a particularly strong incumbent, and he ran three points behind President Obama in 2008.  Our bet is that he survives, but not by a particularly large margin.

----------Race Preview---------

For three decades, southeastern Iowa was represented by a mild-mannered Republican congressman named Jim Leach. Notwithstanding the Democratic tilt of the district  -- Kerry won 55 percent of the vote in 2004 – Leach managed to hang on through a number of tough re-election efforts. But 2006 proved to be too much even for a congressman with Leach’s moderate record, and he lost to Dave Loebsack, a professor of international relations at Cornell College.

Loebsack has been a reliably liberal vote, but it didn’t hurt him in 2008 against ophthalmologist Mariannette Miller-Meeks; he cruised to a 57 percent to 39 percent victory, though he ran a few points behind Barack Obama. Miller-Meeks is back for a rematch in what looks to be a very different environment. By the end of the second quarter she’d already raised as much as she had in all of 2008; almost half as much as Loebsack. Loebsack starts as the favorite, but there’s real upset potential here.