|Poll||Date||Sample||Loebsack (D)||Miller-Meeks (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||51.0||46.0||Loebsack +5.0|
|Voter/Consumer Res/AFF (R)||8/31 - 9/3||300 RV||47||39||Loebsack +8|
|2008: Loebsack (D) 57%, Miller-Meeks (R) 39%||2008: Obama (D) 60%, McCain (R) 39%
|2006: Loesback (D) 51%, Leach (R) 49%||2004: Kerry (D) 55%, Bush (R) 44%|
|2004: Leach (R) 59%, Franker (D) 39%||2000: Gore (D) 53%, Bush (R) 43%|
10/27/10 -- This is another badly-underpolled district. The PVI would suggest that no Republican could win here again, but Loebsack doesn't have the profile of a particularly strong incumbent, and he ran three points behind President Obama in 2008. Our bet is that he survives, but not by a particularly large margin.
For three decades, southeastern Iowa was represented by a mild-mannered Republican congressman named Jim Leach. Notwithstanding the Democratic tilt of the district -- Kerry won 55 percent of the vote in 2004 – Leach managed to hang on through a number of tough re-election efforts. But 2006 proved to be too much even for a congressman with Leach’s moderate record, and he lost to Dave Loebsack, a professor of international relations at Cornell College.
Loebsack has been a reliably liberal vote, but it didn’t hurt him in 2008 against ophthalmologist Mariannette Miller-Meeks; he cruised to a 57 percent to 39 percent victory, though he ran a few points behind Barack Obama. Miller-Meeks is back for a rematch in what looks to be a very different environment. By the end of the second quarter she’d already raised as much as she had in all of 2008; almost half as much as Loebsack. Loebsack starts as the favorite, but there’s real upset potential here.