|Poll||Date||Sample||Marshall (D)||Scott (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||47.3||52.7||Scott +5.4|
|Landmark (R)||10/26 - 10/26||1133 LV||39||53||Scott +14|
|The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland (D)||10/19 - 10/21||400 LV||37||50||Scott +13|
|Landmark (R)||10/19 - 10/19||763 LV||35||51||Scott +16|
|2008: Marshall (D) 57%, Goddard (R) 43%||2008: McCain (R) 56%, Obama (D) 43%|
|2006: Marshall (D) 51%, Collins (R) 49%||2004: Bush (R) 61%, Kerry (D) 39%|
|2004: Westmoreland (R) 76%, Delamar (D) 24%||2000: Bush (R) 57%, Gore (D) 42%|
10/26/10 -- Republican polling suggests that Marshall is in deep trouble, but this is after all, Republican polling. Regardless, despite a generally conservative polling record, Marshall looks to be in very deep trouble this year.
The 8th District is central Georgia. Centered around Macon, it was the hub of the realignment that shattered Georgia politics in the early 2000s. For years, the rural white voters here were the key to keeping Georgia competitive; they were the key to Bill Clinton’s 1992 victory here and continued Democratic dominance of the legislature. Their defection to the Republican Party after George W. Bush’s election is what changed Georgia from a swing state to a state that Democrats still lost handily while winning the national popular vote by seven points.
The congressman from the 8th, Jim Marshall, is a conservative Democrat elected to an earlier iteration of the district, then numbered the 3rd. Marshall was narrowly elected in 2002, and then won handily in 2004. But the legislature changed the district lines for the 2006 election, and the district’s percentage of Bush ’04 voters shot up from 55 percent to 61 percent; the black population plummeted from 40 percent to 33 percent.
Marshall barely won in 2006, and defeated a much-touted Republican in 2008 by a 57-43 margin. He is one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, and has opposed most of the Obama administration’s agenda. He will face another able challenger this year in state Representative Austin Scott.