2010 Senate Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Senate Map

2010 House Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Generic Congressional Ballot
Final House Map

2010 Governor Races

RealClearPolitics Ratings
RCP Race-by-Race Changes
Final Governors Map

Senate 2010 Polls
News & Election Videos

Georgia 12th District - McKinney vs. Barrow


John Barrow

John Barrow (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Raymond McKinney

Raymond McKinney (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Georgia Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races: 
Gov | Sen | GA-2 | GA-8

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | Senate | GA-8
2006: Governor | GA-8 | GA-12
2004: President | Senate | GA-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBarrow (D)McKinney (R)Spread
Final Results----56.643.4Barrow +13.2

Previous Election Results

  2008: Barrow (D) 66%, Stone (R) 34%   2008: Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 45%
  2006: Barrow (D) 50.3%, Burns (R) 49.7%   2004: Kerry (D) 50.2%, Bush (R) 49.6%
  2004: Barrow (D) 52%, Burns (D) 48%   2000: Gore (D) 53%, Bush (R) 46%

Race Analysis

Georgia’s 12th District is an odd conglomeration. It is essentially the African-American portions of Savannah (61 percent black in the 12th), the African-American portions of Augusta (71 percent), and leftover rural counties (38 percent black). Overall the district maintains a small white majority, but there are enough white Democrats to elect a Democratic member to Congress.

John Barrow was first elected in 2004 to a very different 12th district. That district stretched up to capture liberal Athens, Georgia, and gave John Kerry a 54 percent to 46 percent victory over George W. Bush. After a mid-decade redistricting, the counties in the 12th gave Bush a 50 percent to 49 percent win.

Barrow casts his votes carefully, and was rewarded with a solid win in 2008 (after winning by a few hundred votes in 2006). He’s opposed most of the Democratic agenda in the 111th Congress. His opponent is Ray McKinney, who lost the 2008 primary. McKinney has managed to raise some money, but it will take an awfully big wave to sweep him in.