|Poll||Date||Sample||Barrow (D)||McKinney (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||56.6||43.4||Barrow +13.2|
|2008: Barrow (D) 66%, Stone (R) 34%||2008: Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 45%
|2006: Barrow (D) 50.3%, Burns (R) 49.7%||2004: Kerry (D) 50.2%, Bush (R) 49.6%|
|2004: Barrow (D) 52%, Burns (D) 48%||2000: Gore (D) 53%, Bush (R) 46%|
Georgia’s 12th District is an odd conglomeration. It is essentially the African-American portions of Savannah (61 percent black in the 12th), the African-American portions of Augusta (71 percent), and leftover rural counties (38 percent black). Overall the district maintains a small white majority, but there are enough white Democrats to elect a Democratic member to Congress.
John Barrow was first elected in 2004 to a very different 12th district. That district stretched up to capture liberal Athens, Georgia, and gave John Kerry a 54 percent to 46 percent victory over George W. Bush. After a mid-decade redistricting, the counties in the 12th gave Bush a 50 percent to 49 percent win.
Barrow casts his votes carefully, and was rewarded with a solid win in 2008 (after winning by a few hundred votes in 2006). He’s opposed most of the Democratic agenda in the 111th Congress. His opponent is Ray McKinney, who lost the 2008 primary. McKinney has managed to raise some money, but it will take an awfully big wave to sweep him in.