|Poll||Date||Sample||Grayson (D)||Webster (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||38.4||56.2||Webster +17.8|
|Sunshine State News/VSS||10/22 - 10/25||801 LV||41||48||Webster +7|
|Sunshine State News/VSS||9/25 - 9/27||559 LV||36||43||Webster +7|
|2008: Grayson (D) 52%, Keller (R) 48%||2008: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 47%
|2006: Keller (R) 53%, Stuart (D) 46%||2004: Bush (R) 55%, Kerry (D) 44%|
|2004: Keller (R) 61%, Murray (D) 40%||2000: Bush (R) 53%, Gore (D) 45%|
10/26/10 -- Grayson continues to trail his opponent, and his numbers are in the low 40s. He has to make up a lot of ground here in a very short amount of time.
9/29/10 -- In the only independent polling we've seen of this race, Alan Grayson trails former state Senator Dan Webster. The poll, condcted by Sunshine State News, shows Webster leading 43 percent to 36 percent. An incumbent congressman at 36 percent almost never wins; Grayson is in real trouble.
The conventional wisdom is that freshmen congressmen from swing districts should be quiet, build a solid record of constituent service, and vote cautiously. Congressman Alan Grayson seems hellbent on testing that theory. The freshman Democrat narrowly defeated Republican Ric Keller in 2008 even as Barack Obama was running slightly behind his national average. Although the Orlando-based district has been trending Democratic for quite some time, it’s not clear that it is doing so fast enough to save Grayson.
You see, Grayson’s Congressional tenure has been . . . controversial. He famously referred to the House health care plan as “Don't get sick, and if you do get sick, die quickly.” Grayson later defended his comments on the floor, apologizing only “to the dead and their families that we haven't voted sooner to end this holocaust in America.” He referred to Linda Robertson, an advisor to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as a “K-street whore,” compared Dick Cheney to a vampire, and was caught crashing a Republican party meeting in Florida and berating the members.
Needless to say, he has earned his share of admirers on the left and detractors on the right. He also earned seven Republican challengers, who slugged it out in the primary. State Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster emerged victorious, and has raised a decent amount of money. At the end of the day, though, this race will be about Alan Grayson. If his actions and massive fundraising edge can energize his base, he may well be able to survive.